“To Foresee Black Swans, to Watch Out for Gray Rhinos”

Abstract

This article discusses possible trajectories China may follow in its development after the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China. Comparing various scenarios of China’s political development suggested by acclaimed Western experts with Xi Jinping’s latest statements, the author concludes that the chances for the country’s liberalization and democratization are slim. China will have to complete modernization amid growing confrontation with the West. If the CPC succeeds in addressing this challenge while maintaining acceptable growth rates and social stability over the next two decades, China will be able to change not only itself, but the entire world order.