Demographic change in the Arab world: the impact of migration, education and taxes in Egypt and Morocco.

Abstract

The populations of Egypt and Morocco have grown since the beginning of the century from approximately 10 to 57 million and less than 5 to 25.5 million, respectively. Egypt and Morocco are two of the most populous Arab countries. After a long period of demographic growth, they adopted less pronatalist legislation and implemented family planning programs starting in the 1960s. Egypt's rate of total fertility (TFR) at that time was 6.7 children per woman, lower than most of the Arab world and lower than Morocco's 7.2. Egypt's fertility since then, however, has remained at 5-6, only dropping below 5 in 1989. TFR in Morocco increased to 7.4 in 1973, declined to 5.9 over the period 1973-77, and fell below 4 in 1989. The author questions why the goals of fertility control programs have not been reached in Egypt, yet have been surpassed in Morocco. Available data on contraceptive prevalence and breastfeeding practices would predict the opposite to be the case. 35.9% used birth control methods in Morocco in 1987 and 37.8% in Egypt in 1988. 6.9%, however, used less effective traditional methods in Morocco compared to only 2.4% who used such methods in Egypt. Egyptian women breastfeed their babies for 17.3 months compared to 14.4 months among Moroccan women, while between the ages 20-24, 60% of Egyptian women are married compared to 45% of women in Morocco. Moroccan and Egyptian families resist traditional explanations of demographic transition. It is concluded that although educational status affects fertility in the Maghrib and Mashriq, greater female labor force participation, state-citizen fiscal relations, and foreign migration play major determining roles.