The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality

IF 3.6 1区社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY

Demography Pub Date : 1979-08-01 DOI:10.2307/2061224

J. Vaupel, K. Manton, E. Stallard

引用次数: 1737

Abstract

Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of individual aging, past progress in reducing mortality, and mortality differentials between pairs of populations. Calculations based on Swedish mortality data suggest that these errors may be important, especially in old age.

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个体虚弱的异质性对死亡率动态的影响

生命表方法是为其成员的寿命禀赋不同的人群开发的。与忽略这种异质性的标准方法不同，这些方法使用不同的计算方法来构建队列、时期和个体生命表。结果表明，标准方法高估了当前的预期寿命以及健康和安全干预措施带来的预期寿命的潜在收益，而低估了个人老龄化率、过去在降低死亡率方面取得的进展以及对人群之间的死亡率差异。基于瑞典死亡率数据的计算表明，这些错误可能很重要，尤其是在老年人中。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Demography DEMOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

2.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： Since its founding in 1964, the journal Demography has mirrored the vitality, diversity, high intellectual standard and wide impact of the field on which it reports. Demography presents the highest quality original research of scholars in a broad range of disciplines, including anthropology, biology, economics, geography, history, psychology, public health, sociology, and statistics. The journal encompasses a wide variety of methodological approaches to population research. Its geographic focus is global, with articles addressing demographic matters from around the planet. Its temporal scope is broad, as represented by research that explores demographic phenomena spanning the ages from the past to the present, and reaching toward the future. Authors whose work is published in Demography benefit from the wide audience of population scientists their research will reach. Also in 2011 Demography remains the most cited journal among population studies and demographic periodicals. Published bimonthly, Demography is the flagship journal of the Population Association of America, reaching the membership of one of the largest professional demographic associations in the world.