Portuguese Ministers as Political Survivors: an empirical analysis of the first 20 Constitutional Governments

Q3 Social Sciences

Revista de Sociologia e Politica Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.1590/1678-987320287306

P. Mourão, V. Martinho

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

ABSTRACT Introduction: In this study, we evaluated the proportional risk of Portuguese Prime-Ministers and Ministers leaving office. Materials and Methods: We used consecutive days in office for each one of the 432 citizens who served in a ministerial function since 1976. Results: Exploring several divisions in this population, we concluded that individuals supported by parliamentary majorities, who served after 1986, who had higher educational credentials, and who were members of political parties exhibited lower risks of being exonerated. Conversely, being an aged person, serving during bad economic conditions, assuming several ministries simultaneously and being in charge of too-specific ministries did not ensure longer political tenures for Portuguese ministers. Discussion: Besides being the first empirical assessment of all Portuguese Ministers after 1974, this work shows how higher skills are important assets for Ministers’ tenures and how economic crises are highly stimulating for cabinets’ changes in Portugal, which corresponds to the pattern observed in most recent democratic regimens.

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葡萄牙部长作为政治幸存者:前20个宪政政府的实证分析

摘要:在本研究中，我们评估了葡萄牙总理和部长离职的比例风险。▽资料和方法=对1976年以后担任长官职务的432名国民进行了连续任职调查。结果:研究了这一人群中的几个分化，我们得出结论，得到议会多数支持的人，1986年以后任职的人，受过高等教育的人，以及是政党成员的人，被免罪的风险较低。相反，作为一个老年人，在糟糕的经济条件下任职，同时担任多个部委，以及负责过于具体的部委，并不能确保葡萄牙部长的政治任期更长。讨论:除了对1974年后所有葡萄牙部长进行的第一次实证评估外，这项工作还显示了更高的技能是部长任期的重要资产，以及经济危机如何高度刺激葡萄牙内阁的变化，这与最近的民主制度中观察到的模式相对应。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Revista de Sociologia e Politica Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science

CiteScore

0.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

16 weeks

期刊介绍： The Revista de Sociologia e Política is a bi-annual publication of the Political Science staff of the Departament of Social Sciences of the Paraná Federal University, in Brazil. Created in 1993, it appears in the months of June and November. Open to scientific debate, the Revista de Sociologia e Política intends to be a pluralist space to divulge the results of substantive research, mainly of sociologists and political scientists. It publishes, preferably in Portuguese, original articles and critical reviews of recently edited works. The Revista de Sociologia e Política give priority to manuscripts whose main theme pertains to politics and the political.