Pen, to Paper, to the Polls

Abstract

Since 2000, over 700 voter-initiated ballot measures have appeared on ballots in statewide elections (Institute for Public Policy and Social Research [IPPSR], 2016). Because these measures must gain support in the form of voter signatures, an entire industry of political consulting firms focused on signature collecting has formed across the country. Indeed, in California alone, over $150 million has been spent since 2000 on gathering signatures for ballot initiatives (California Secretary of State [CA SOS], 2020a). To that extent, spending on signature gathering significantly affects whether an initiative gets on the ballot. But do these signature gathering campaigns have an impact on whether the ballot initiative is passed? Can signature gathering campaigns serve a dual purpose—qualify a measure for the ballot, and build electoral support for the measure via connections with voters? If signature gathering campaigns are effective means of consciousness raising among voters and end up spurring voters to the ballot box, we could see a significant correlation between signature spending and outcomes, suggesting that committees could use these campaigns to strategically motivate voters. If more intense signature gathering campaigns only reach already mobilized supporters, we could see limited effects on electoral outcomes. The strength of these signature campaigns can be measured in two ways: the total amount of money spent on the campaign, and the actual number of signatures gathered in the campaign. The number of signatures required for an initiative to qualify for the ballot depends on the turnout for the previous gubernatorial election (CA SOS, 2020b). To analyze spending at the statewide level (with each ballot initiative serving as one observation), using the amount spent per required signature as a metric of signature campaign strength best accounts for changes in the required number of signatures for an initiative. For county-level analysis (with Abstract. Does the act of signing a petition to place initiatives on the ballot make a voter more likely to vote for that measure? Previous research suggests that television advertising can influence vote share for ballot propositions and that signature gathering campaigns increase registration and turnout and decrease ballot roll-off but has failed to examine the link between petition drives and vote share. Using heteroskedasticity-robust regression with clustered standard errors and multiple levels of fixed effects, I examine whether either statewide spending on petition circulation or the number of voters a petition campaign reaches in a county has a significant impact on vote share. Though statewide spending analysis proves largely inconclusive, the strength of a petition drive within a county has a significant, positive effect on vote share even after endogenizing campaign strategy and incorporating turnout effects.