The effect of emigration on financial and social pension system sustainability in EU new member states: Panel data analysis

IF 2.1 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Sociology Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.14254/2071-789X.2021/14-1/10

V. Vučković, L. Škuflić

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引用次数: 6

Abstract

. The paper brings the analysis of the emigration effects on financial and political sustainability of pension systems in 11 new European Union member states: Bulgaria, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, Czech Republic, Slovenia and Hungary. The panel data analysis (fixed effects model) covers the crisis and post-crisis period from 2008 to 2017. The obtained results show that emigration growth is positively related to the pension expenditures (expressed as a share in GDP), thus having a negative impact on financial sustainability of pension system. On the other side, the emigration effect on social sustainability of pension system which is encompassed by the median relative income (65+) is not statistically significant. However, through including other socio-economic and political factors in econometric models besides the emigration (e.g. unemployment rate, education, political cycles, old-age dependency ratio, replacement ratio), the results have confirmed that there is a trade-off between the two goals of pension policies, i.e. between financial and political sustainability of pension system.

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移民对欧盟新成员国财政和社会养老金制度可持续性的影响:面板数据分析

．本文分析了11个欧盟新成员国(保加利亚、爱沙尼亚、克罗地亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、波兰、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克共和国、捷克共和国、斯洛文尼亚和匈牙利)养老金制度的财政和政治可持续性的移民影响。面板数据分析(固定效应模型)涵盖2008年至2017年危机和危机后时期。所得结果表明，移民增长与养老金支出呈正相关(以占GDP的比例表示)，从而对养老金制度的财务可持续性产生负面影响。另一方面，移民对相对收入中位数(65+)所包含的养老金制度的社会可持续性的影响不具有统计学意义。然而，通过在计量经济模型中加入移民之外的其他社会经济和政治因素(如失业率、教育、政治周期、老年抚养比、替代率)，结果证实了养老金政策的两个目标之间存在权衡，即养老金制度的财政可持续性和政治可持续性之间存在权衡。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economics & Sociology ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

6.70%

发文量

审稿时长

24 weeks

期刊介绍： Economics and Sociology (ISSN 2306-3459 Online, ISSN 2071-789X Print) is a quarterly international academic open access journal published by Centre of Sociological Research in co-operation with University of Szczecin (Poland), Mykolas Romeris University (Lithuania), Dubcek University of Trencín, Faculty of Social and Economic Relations, (Slovak Republic) and University of Entrepreneurship and Law, (Czech Republic). The general topical framework of our publication include (but is not limited to): advancing socio-economic analysis of societies and economies, institutions and organizations, social groups, networks and relationships.[...] We welcome articles written by professional scholars and practitioners in: economic studies and philosophy of economics, political sciences and political economy, research in history of economics and sociological phenomena, sociology and gender studies, economic and social issues of education, socio-economic and institutional issues in environmental management, business administration and management of SMEs, state governance and socio-economic implications, economic and sociological development of the NGO sector, cultural sociology, urban and rural sociology and demography, migration studies, international issues in business risk and state security, economics of welfare.

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