A Two-Stage Bayesian Sequential Assessment of Exploratory Hypotheses

IF 3.1 3区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
A. Stefan, Lukas L. Lengersdorff, E. Wagenmakers
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Separating confirmatory and exploratory analyses is vital for ensuring the credibility of research results. Here, we present a two-stage Bayesian sequential procedure that combines a maximum of exploratory freedom in the first stage with a strictly confirmatory regimen in the second stage. It allows for flexible sampling schemes and a statistically coherent carry-over of information from the exploratory to the confirmatory stage. We believe that this procedure will facilitate preregistration as well as the formulation of precise hypotheses in the field of psychology and can be integrated elegantly into the registered report publishing framework. We demonstrate the methodology with a simulated application example from the field of social neuroscience.
探索性假设的两阶段贝叶斯顺序评估
分离验证性分析和探索性分析对于确保研究结果的可信度至关重要。在这里,我们提出了一个两阶段的贝叶斯顺序程序,结合了第一阶段的最大探索自由和第二阶段的严格确认方案。它允许灵活的抽样方案和统计上连贯的信息从探索阶段延续到确认阶段。我们认为,这一程序将促进预登记以及在心理学领域制定精确的假设,并可以优雅地纳入已登记的报告出版框架。我们通过社会神经科学领域的一个模拟应用实例来演示该方法。
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来源期刊
Collabra-Psychology
Collabra-Psychology PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
4.00%
发文量
47
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Collabra: Psychology has 7 sections representing the broad field of psychology, and a highlighted focus area of “Methodology and Research Practice.” Are: Cognitive Psychology Social Psychology Personality Psychology Clinical Psychology Developmental Psychology Organizational Behavior Methodology and Research Practice.
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