Emerging Economies and Large Land Investments

Abstract

Since 2008, and following dramatic increases in prices, international commodities markets systems have begun changing after decades of relative indifference. The reasons for high, volatile food prices are manifold and widely analyzed by the abundance of literature on the subject, that deals essentially with imbalances in demand and supply. On the global demand for food, a factor with a huge impact, is the change in diet, especially in emerging countries where, an increase of per capita income corresponds to an increase in the demand for animal-based foods. As the demand for food increases, demand for land increases and pushes  prices up, thus fuelling speculation that mainly affects countries where land prices are lower. The paper aims to highlight the behaviour of China and India –which are among the most important emerging countries in terms of economic growth, concentration of population and surface area – with regard to the large-scaleland investment  phenomenon. We have aimed to identify those macroeconomic indicators (such as biofuels production, food price index, GDP per capita, cereals production and crude oil prices, usually referred to in order to explain the trend) which best exemplify how they can affect the two countries analyzed in the rush for land. The paper is divided into sections. Following a brief presentation of  adopted methodology, an overall picture is presented of agriculture, renewable energy and land investment in China and India and, by means of a correlation matrix, the impact that some macroeconomic variables have on the phenomenon have been described.