Forecasting emergency department arrivals using INGARCH models.

IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Juan C Reboredo, Jose Ramon Barba-Queiruga, Javier Ojea-Ferreiro, Francisco Reyes-Santias
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Forecasting patient arrivals to hospital emergency departments is critical to dealing with surges and to efficient planning, management and functioning of hospital emerency departments.

Objective: We explore whether past mean values and past observations are useful to forecast daily patient arrivals in an Emergency Department.

Material and methods: We examine whether an integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (INGARCH) model can yield a better conditional distribution fit and forecast of patient arrivals by using past arrival information and taking into account the dynamics of the volatility of arrivals.

Results: We document that INGARCH models improve both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts, particularly in the lower and upper quantiles of the distribution of arrivals.

Conclusion: Our results suggest that INGARCH modelling is a useful model for short-term and tactical emergency department planning, e.g., to assign rotas or locate staff for unexpected surges in patient arrivals.

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使用INGARCH模型预测急诊科到达人数。
背景:预测患者到达医院急诊部门对于应对激增以及医院急诊部门的有效规划、管理和运作至关重要。目的:我们探讨过去的平均值和过去的观测值是否有助于预测急诊科的每日患者到达情况。材料和方法:我们通过使用过去的到达信息和考虑到到货波动的动态。结果:我们记录了INGARCH模型改进了样本内和样本外预测,特别是在到达分布的上分位数和下分位数方面。结论:我们的研究结果表明,INGARCH模型是一个有用的短期和战术急诊科规划模型,例如,为患者到达的意外激增分配轮值表或定位工作人员。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
4.20%
发文量
59
审稿时长
13 weeks
期刊介绍: Health Economics Review is an international high-quality journal covering all fields of Health Economics. A broad range of theoretical contributions, empirical studies and analyses of health policy with a health economic focus will be considered for publication. Its scope includes macro- and microeconomics of health care financing, health insurance and reimbursement as well as health economic evaluation, health services research and health policy analysis. Further research topics are the individual and institutional aspects of health care management and the growing importance of health care in developing countries.
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