The Potential of Energy as a Geopolitical Binding Factor in Asia

Abstract

A specialist on geopolitical issues involving the world's energy resources explores the implications of rising energy demand in Asia as a function of future economic development in high-population countries (e.g., China, India) in the region. A focus is on issues and challenges in managing energy security and the potential for cooperation and conservation vis-a-vis competition in energy resource allocation. Included in the analysis is consideration of the role of rising oil output from Russia and the possible development of new hydrocarbon resources in Kazakhstan, the Russian Far East, and East Siberia as a potential source of supply for China. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, 010, Q41. 2 tables, 40 references. From Daniel Yergin's award-winning book The Prize (Yergin, 1991) to Kent Calder's less notable, but still influential volume Asia's Deadly Triangle (Calder, 1996), authors who have tackled the difficult subject of oil have tended to emphasize the competition for scarce resources as the driving force of oil geopolitics, especially where Asia is concerned. Calder warned in his 1997 book that "expansionist, confrontational strategies, not to mention the acquisition of nuclear weapons, offer some attractive prospects of gain to regional powers, such as preferential access to energy resources and sea lanes in the South China Sea (ibid., p. 136). In an analysis that became common wisdom among China watchers, Calder noted that this strategic rivalry, if unchecked, represents "a recipe for disaster" and will increase the likelihood of conflict in Asia. Author Michael Klare jumped on this bandwagon more recently with a similarly sexily titled book, Resource Wars (Klare, 2001), proclaiming that "clearly it is not possible to explain the dynamics of global security affairs without recognizing the pivotal importance of resource competition" (ibid., p. 14). But energy markets could just as easily be oversupplied as undersupplied in the coming decades, depending on the energy policies undertaken by key consuming countries such as the United States, China, and Japan in the coming decade. The September 11 attack on the United States casts its shadow over this question of energy resources in several different ways. First, it makes even clearer than before the inherent risks associated with heavy reliance on oil supplies from the volatile Middle East. But the war of terror also raises the possibilities that this dependence could be reduced if large consuming nations band together on energy policy in a fashion similar to that currently evident in the construction of an international coalition against terrorism. Signs that Russia, the United States, and China can join forces on common strategic goals where terrorism is concerned leaves open the question of whether there could be other areas for cooperation, including the energy arena. 'Senior Energy Advisor, James A. Baker III Institute For Public Policy, Rice University, Baker Hall, Suite 120, Houston, TX 77005.