No Amplification of Hindsight Bias Due to Time Delay

Abstract

Hindsight bias is a phenomenon in which individuals tend to overestimate the degree of accuracy to which they can recall an event after the fact. This study examined the effect of time delay on hindsight bias. Participants (n = 66) gave numerical responses to test questions (Phase 1) and were later provided with the solutions to these questions (Phase 2), at which time they were asked to recall their original answers. Group 1 received a short time delay of 1 day between Phases 1 and 2, while Group 2 experienced a medium delay (1 week) and Group 3 a long delay (3 weeks). Although non-significant results were obtained, a trend was found toward increased hindsight bias with longer time delay.