Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis at Regional and National Scales: State of the Art and Future Challenges

IF 25.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
M. C. Gerstenberger, W. Marzocchi, T. Allen, M. Pagani, J. Adams, L. Danciu, E. H. Field, H. Fujiwara, N. Luco, K.-F. Ma, C. Meletti, M. D. Petersen
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引用次数: 63

Abstract

Seismic hazard modeling is a multidisciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components developed from Earth science: seismic source and ground motion models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the forecast length, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses consider forecasting windows of 30 to 50 years, which are typically an engineering demand for building code purposes. These types of analyses are the topic of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of seismic hazard modeling have largely remained unchanged for more than 50 years, we review the most recent initiatives, which face the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and spatially precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time-independent hazard to forecasts that are time dependent and specific to the time period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science-driven models, which integrate all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the model to quantify its consistency and skill. We review the state of the art of the National Seismic Hazard Modeling and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges.

区域和国家尺度的概率地震灾害分析:技术现状和未来挑战
地震危险性建模是一门多学科的科学,其目的是预测地震的发生及其引起的地面震动。这样的模型由一个概率框架组成,该框架量化了一个复杂系统的不确定性;通常,这包括至少两个从地球科学发展出来的模型组成部分:震源和地面运动模型。虽然没有科学的预测长度的规定,但最常见的概率地震危害分析考虑了30至50年的预测窗口,这通常是建筑规范目的的工程需求。这些类型的分析是这篇综述文章的主题。尽管地震灾害建模的核心方法和假设在50多年来基本保持不变,但我们回顾了最近的举措,这些举措面临着既满足日益复杂的社会需求又与科学认识的进步保持同步的艰巨任务。在需要更准确和空间上更精确的灾害预报的同时,必须增加对不确定性的量化和新的挑战,例如从不依赖于时间的灾害转向依赖于时间和特定于感兴趣的时间段的预测。为了应对这些挑战,需要开发科学驱动的模型,将现有的所有信息整合起来,采用适当的数学框架来量化危险模型中不同类型的不确定性,并开发适当的模型测试阶段,以量化其一致性和技能。我们回顾了国家地震灾害建模的最新进展,以及最具创新性的方法如何应对未来的挑战。
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来源期刊
Reviews of Geophysics
Reviews of Geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
50.30
自引率
0.80%
发文量
28
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Geophysics Reviews (ROG) offers comprehensive overviews and syntheses of current research across various domains of the Earth and space sciences. Our goal is to present accessible and engaging reviews that cater to the diverse AGU community. While authorship is typically by invitation, we warmly encourage readers and potential authors to share their suggestions with our editors.
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