Verification of tropical cyclones (TC) wind structure forecasts from global NWP models and ensemble prediction systems (EPSs)

IF 2.4 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Xiaoqin Lu , Wai Kin Wong , Kin Chung Au-Yeung , Chun Wing Choy , Hui Yu
{"title":"Verification of tropical cyclones (TC) wind structure forecasts from global NWP models and ensemble prediction systems (EPSs)","authors":"Xiaoqin Lu ,&nbsp;Wai Kin Wong ,&nbsp;Kin Chung Au-Yeung ,&nbsp;Chun Wing Choy ,&nbsp;Hui Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2022.07.002","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Forecasting wind structure of tropical cyclone (TC) is vital in assessment of impact due to high winds using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. The usual verification technique on TC wind structure forecasts are based on grid-to-grid comparisons between forecast field and the actual field. However, precision of traditional verification measures is easily affected by small scale errors and thus cannot well discriminate the accuracy or effectiveness of NWP model forecast. In this study, the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE), which has been widely adopted in verifying precipitation fields, is utilized in TC's wind field verification for the first time. The TC wind field forecast of deterministic NWP model and Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2020 were evaluated. A MODE score of 0.5 is used as a threshold value to represent a skillful (or good) forecast. It is found that the R34 (radius of 34 knots) wind field structure forecasts within 72 h are good regardless of DET or EPS. The performance of R50 and R64 is slightly worse but the R50 forecasts within 48 h remain good, with MODE exceeded 0.5. The R64 forecast within 48 h are worth for reference as well with MODE of around 0.5. This study states that the TC wind field structure forecast by ECMWF is skillful for TCs over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"11 2","pages":"Pages 88-102"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603222000145/pdfft?md5=6fae61dc045ce24fe776990a188082ec&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603222000145-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603222000145","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Forecasting wind structure of tropical cyclone (TC) is vital in assessment of impact due to high winds using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. The usual verification technique on TC wind structure forecasts are based on grid-to-grid comparisons between forecast field and the actual field. However, precision of traditional verification measures is easily affected by small scale errors and thus cannot well discriminate the accuracy or effectiveness of NWP model forecast. In this study, the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE), which has been widely adopted in verifying precipitation fields, is utilized in TC's wind field verification for the first time. The TC wind field forecast of deterministic NWP model and Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2020 were evaluated. A MODE score of 0.5 is used as a threshold value to represent a skillful (or good) forecast. It is found that the R34 (radius of 34 knots) wind field structure forecasts within 72 h are good regardless of DET or EPS. The performance of R50 and R64 is slightly worse but the R50 forecasts within 48 h remain good, with MODE exceeded 0.5. The R64 forecast within 48 h are worth for reference as well with MODE of around 0.5. This study states that the TC wind field structure forecast by ECMWF is skillful for TCs over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea.

全球NWP模式和集合预报系统对热带气旋风结构预报的验证
数值天气预报(NWP)模式对热带气旋风结构的预测是评估大风影响的关键。通常对TC风结构预报的验证技术是基于预报场与实际场的网格间比较。然而,传统的验证措施的精度容易受到小尺度误差的影响,无法很好地区分NWP模型预测的准确性或有效性。本研究首次将在降水场验证中广泛采用的基于对象的诊断评估方法(Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation, MODE)用于TC风场验证。对确定性NWP模式和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)集合预报系统(EPS)在2020年北太平洋西部和南海的TC风场预报进行了评价。0.5的MODE分数被用作表示熟练(或良好)预测的阈值。结果表明,无论DET还是EPS, 72 h内的R34(34节半径)风场结构预报都很好。R50和R64的表现稍差,但48 h内的R50预测仍然良好,MODE超过0.5。48小时内的R64预报也值得参考,MODE约为0.5。研究表明,ECMWF对北太平洋西部和南海一带的TC风场结构预报较为准确。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
3.40%
发文量
184
审稿时长
30 weeks
期刊介绍: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review is an international journal focusing on tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, and research as well as associated hydrological effects and disaster risk reduction. This journal is edited and published by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorology Administration (STI/CMA). Contributions from all tropical cyclone basins are welcome. Scope of the journal includes: • Reviews of tropical cyclones exhibiting unusual characteristics or behavior or resulting in disastrous impacts on Typhoon Committee Members and other regional WMO bodies • Advances in applied and basic tropical cyclone research or technology to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings • Basic theoretical studies of tropical cyclones • Event reports, compelling images, and topic review reports of tropical cyclones • Impacts, risk assessments, and risk management techniques related to tropical cyclones
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信