Patrick A. Fekety, Nicholas L. Crookston, Andrew T. Hudak, Steven K. Filippelli, Jody C. Vogeler, Michael J. Falkowski
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引用次数: 3
Abstract
Forests are an important component of the global carbon balance, and climate sensitive growth and yield models are an essential tool when predicting future forest conditions. In this study, we used the dynamic climate capability of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) to simulate future (100?year) forest conditions on four National Forests in the northwestern USA: Payette National Forest (NF), Ochoco NF, Gifford Pinchot NF, and Siuslaw NF. Using Forest Inventory and Analysis field plots, aboveground carbon estimates and species compositions were simulated with Climate-FVS for the period between 2016 and 2116 under a no climate change scenario and a future climate scenario. We included a sensitivity analysis that varied calculated disturbance probabilities and the dClim rule, which is one method used by Climate-FVS to introduce climate-related mortality. The dClim rule initiates mortality when the predicted climate change at a site is greater than the change in climate associated with a predetermined shift in elevation.
Results of the simulations indicated the dClim rule influenced future carbon projections more than estimates of disturbance probability. Future aboveground carbon estimates increased and species composition remained stable under the no climate change scenario. The future climate scenario we tested resulted in less carbon at the end of the projections compared to the no climate change scenarios for all cases except when the dClim rule was disengaged on the Payette NF. Under the climate change scenario, species compositions shifted to climatically adapted species or early successional species.
This research highlights the need to consider climate projections in long-term planning or future forest conditions may be unexpected. Forest managers and planners could perform similar simulations and use the results as a planning tool when analyzing climate change effects at the National Forest level.
森林是全球碳平衡的重要组成部分，气候敏感型生长和产量模型是预测未来森林状况的重要工具。本研究利用森林植被模拟器(FVS)的动态气候能力，对美国西北部4个国家森林(Payette National Forest, NF)、Ochoco National Forest、Gifford Pinchot National Forest和Siuslaw National Forest)未来100年的森林条件进行了模拟。利用森林清查和分析(Forest Inventory and Analysis)野外样地，利用climate - fvs模拟了2016 - 2116年无气候变化情景和未来气候情景下的地表碳估算和物种组成。我们纳入了一个敏感性分析，该分析改变了计算的干扰概率和dClim规则，dClim规则是气候- fvs引入气候相关死亡率的一种方法。当一个地点预测的气候变化大于与预定的海拔变化相关的气候变化时，dClim规则启动死亡率。模拟结果表明，dClim规则对未来碳预估的影响大于干扰概率估计值。在无气候变化情景下，未来地上碳估计值增加，物种组成保持稳定。我们测试的未来气候情景在预测结束时比没有气候变化的情景产生更少的碳，除了在帕耶特NF上解除dClim规则时。在气候变化情景下，物种组成向气候适应物种或早期演替物种转变。这项研究强调了在长期规划中考虑气候预测的必要性，否则未来的森林条件可能是不可预料的。森林管理者和规划者可以进行类似的模拟，并在分析国家森林层面的气候变化影响时将结果用作规划工具。
期刊介绍：
Carbon Balance and Management is an open access, peer-reviewed online journal that encompasses all aspects of research aimed at developing a comprehensive policy relevant to the understanding of the global carbon cycle.
The global carbon cycle involves important couplings between climate, atmospheric CO2 and the terrestrial and oceanic biospheres. The current transformation of the carbon cycle due to changes in climate and atmospheric composition is widely recognized as potentially dangerous for the biosphere and for the well-being of humankind, and therefore monitoring, understanding and predicting the evolution of the carbon cycle in the context of the whole biosphere (both terrestrial and marine) is a challenge to the scientific community.
This demands interdisciplinary research and new approaches for studying geographical and temporal distributions of carbon pools and fluxes, control and feedback mechanisms of the carbon-climate system, points of intervention and windows of opportunity for managing the carbon-climate-human system.
Carbon Balance and Management is a medium for researchers in the field to convey the results of their research across disciplinary boundaries. Through this dissemination of research, the journal aims to support the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and to provide governmental and non-governmental organizations with instantaneous access to continually emerging knowledge, including paradigm shifts and consensual views.
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