Hidden Markov Model for early prediction of the elderly’s dependency evolution in ambient assisted living

IF 1.8 4区 计算机科学 Q3 TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Rim Jouini, Chiraz Houaidia, Leila Azouz Saidane
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The integration of information and communication technologies (ICT) can be of great utility in monitoring and evaluating the elderly’s health condition and its behavior in performing Activities of Daily Living (ADL) in the perspective to avoid, as long as possible, the delays of recourse to health care institutions (e.g., nursing homes and hospitals). In this research, we propose a predictive model for detecting behavioral and health-related changes in a patient who is monitored continuously in an assisted living environment. We focus on keeping track of the dependency level evolution and detecting the loss of autonomy for an elderly person using a Hidden Markov Model based approach. In this predictive process, we were interested in including the correlation between cardiovascular history and hypertension as it is considered the primary risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, stroke, kidney failure and many other diseases. Our simulation was applied to an empirical dataset that concerned 3046 elderly persons monitored over 9 years. The results show that our model accurately evaluates person’s dependency, follows his autonomy evolution over time and thus predicts moments of important changes.

Abstract Image

环境辅助生活中老年人依赖性进化的早期预测隐马尔可夫模型
信息和通信技术(ICT)的集成在监测和评估老年人的健康状况及其在日常生活活动中的行为方面非常有用,可以尽可能避免延迟求助于医疗机构(如疗养院和医院)。在这项研究中,我们提出了一个预测模型,用于检测在辅助生活环境中持续监测的患者的行为和健康相关变化。我们专注于跟踪依赖水平的演变,并使用基于隐马尔可夫模型的方法检测老年人的自主性损失。在这个预测过程中,我们感兴趣的是包括心血管病史和高血压之间的相关性,因为高血压被认为是心血管疾病、中风、肾衰竭和许多其他疾病的主要风险因素。我们的模拟应用于一个经验数据集,该数据集涉及9年来监测的3046名老年人。结果表明,我们的模型准确地评估了一个人的依赖性,跟踪了他的自主性随时间的演变,从而预测了重要变化的时刻。
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来源期刊
Annals of Telecommunications
Annals of Telecommunications 工程技术-电信学
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
5.30%
发文量
37
审稿时长
4.5 months
期刊介绍: Annals of Telecommunications is an international journal publishing original peer-reviewed papers in the field of telecommunications. It covers all the essential branches of modern telecommunications, ranging from digital communications to communication networks and the internet, to software, protocols and services, uses and economics. This large spectrum of topics accounts for the rapid convergence through telecommunications of the underlying technologies in computers, communications, content management towards the emergence of the information and knowledge society. As a consequence, the Journal provides a medium for exchanging research results and technological achievements accomplished by the European and international scientific community from academia and industry.
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