{"title":"Forecasting volatility in bitcoin market","authors":"Mawuli Segnon, Stelios Bekiros","doi":"10.1007/s10436-020-00368-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we revisit the stylized facts of bitcoin markets and propose various approaches for modeling the dynamics governing the mean and variance processes. We first provide the statistical properties of our proposed models and study in detail their forecasting performance and adequacy by means of point and density forecasts. We adopt two loss functions and the model confidence set test to evaluate the predictive ability of the models and the likelihood ratio test to assess their adequacy. Our results confirm that bitcoin markets are characterized by <i>regime shifting</i>, <i>long memory</i> and <i>multifractality</i>. We find that the Markov switching multifractal and FIGARCH models outperform other GARCH-type models in forecasting bitcoin returns volatility. Furthermore, combined forecasts improve upon forecasts from individual models.\n</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2020-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s10436-020-00368-y","citationCount":"8","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Finance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10436-020-00368-y","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Abstract
In this paper, we revisit the stylized facts of bitcoin markets and propose various approaches for modeling the dynamics governing the mean and variance processes. We first provide the statistical properties of our proposed models and study in detail their forecasting performance and adequacy by means of point and density forecasts. We adopt two loss functions and the model confidence set test to evaluate the predictive ability of the models and the likelihood ratio test to assess their adequacy. Our results confirm that bitcoin markets are characterized by regime shifting, long memory and multifractality. We find that the Markov switching multifractal and FIGARCH models outperform other GARCH-type models in forecasting bitcoin returns volatility. Furthermore, combined forecasts improve upon forecasts from individual models.
期刊介绍：
Annals of Finance provides an outlet for original research in all areas of finance and its applications to other disciplines having a clear and substantive link to the general theme of finance. In particular, innovative research papers of moderate length of the highest quality in all scientific areas that are motivated by the analysis of financial problems will be considered. Annals of Finance''s scope encompasses - but is not limited to - the following areas: accounting and finance, asset pricing, banking and finance, capital markets and finance, computational finance, corporate finance, derivatives, dynamical and chaotic systems in finance, economics and finance, empirical finance, experimental finance, finance and the theory of the firm, financial econometrics, financial institutions, mathematical finance, money and finance, portfolio analysis, regulation, stochastic analysis and finance, stock market analysis, systemic risk and financial stability. Annals of Finance also publishes special issues on any topic in finance and its applications of current interest. A small section, entitled finance notes, will be devoted solely to publishing short articles – up to ten pages in length, of substantial interest in finance. Officially cited as: Ann Finance
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