{"title":"Permutation-weighted portfolios and the efficiency of commodity futures markets","authors":"Ricardo T. Fernholz, Robert Fernholz","doi":"10.1007/s10436-021-00401-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the behavior of <i>permutation-weighted portfolios,</i> portfolios with weights that are proportional to a permutation of the current market weights. For markets with more than two assets, these portfolios are not functionally generated (except for the identity permutation), so we use rank-based methods to analyze their behavior. The <i>reverse-wighted portfolio</i> is the permutation-weighted portfolio with weights proportional to the market weights, but reversed by rank. We show that in a market represented by a first-order model with rank-symmetric variance parameters, the reverse-weighted portfolio will outperform the market portfolio over the long term. This result carries over to a commodity futures market with rank-based parameters similar to those of such a first-order model. In this market we find that the reverse-weighted portfolio outperforms the price-weighted market portfolio from 1977–2018.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45289,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Finance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10436-021-00401-8","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We study the behavior of permutation-weighted portfolios, portfolios with weights that are proportional to a permutation of the current market weights. For markets with more than two assets, these portfolios are not functionally generated (except for the identity permutation), so we use rank-based methods to analyze their behavior. The reverse-wighted portfolio is the permutation-weighted portfolio with weights proportional to the market weights, but reversed by rank. We show that in a market represented by a first-order model with rank-symmetric variance parameters, the reverse-weighted portfolio will outperform the market portfolio over the long term. This result carries over to a commodity futures market with rank-based parameters similar to those of such a first-order model. In this market we find that the reverse-weighted portfolio outperforms the price-weighted market portfolio from 1977–2018.
期刊介绍：
Annals of Finance provides an outlet for original research in all areas of finance and its applications to other disciplines having a clear and substantive link to the general theme of finance. In particular, innovative research papers of moderate length of the highest quality in all scientific areas that are motivated by the analysis of financial problems will be considered. Annals of Finance''s scope encompasses - but is not limited to - the following areas: accounting and finance, asset pricing, banking and finance, capital markets and finance, computational finance, corporate finance, derivatives, dynamical and chaotic systems in finance, economics and finance, empirical finance, experimental finance, finance and the theory of the firm, financial econometrics, financial institutions, mathematical finance, money and finance, portfolio analysis, regulation, stochastic analysis and finance, stock market analysis, systemic risk and financial stability. Annals of Finance also publishes special issues on any topic in finance and its applications of current interest. A small section, entitled finance notes, will be devoted solely to publishing short articles – up to ten pages in length, of substantial interest in finance. Officially cited as: Ann Finance
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