Highlighting regional decarbonization challenges with novel capacity expansion model

Abstract

This paper highlights the importance of regionally tailored decarbonization strategies to reach emissions intensity targets. The presented Ideal Grid model was used to compare and contrast decarbonization strategies for 9 regions of the continental US. For each of these regions, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) are completed to track emissions intensity and electricity cost based on system installations. Ten technologies are included in this analysis: nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas (3 types), coal (3 types), and energy storage (lithium-ion batteries). The impact of carbon ceilings and carbon taxes are explored. It is shown that a carbon tax can linearly incentivize decarbonization in certain regions and exponentially incentivize decarbonization in other regions. It is shown that wind capacity factors can be used to indicate decarbonization strategies due to a strong correlation that is explored. At deep decarbonization levels (25 gCO₂/kWh), regions have a varying reliance on nuclear. Regions source anywhere from 27-72% of their electricity from nuclear, with electricity costs ranging from $112/MWh to $137/MWh. At lenient decarbonization targets (100 gCO₂/kWh), electricity costs range from $93/MWh to $112/MWh.