Quantifying impacts of competition and demand on the risk for fertilizer plant locations

IF 3.7 4区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
William W. Wilson , Sumadhur Shakya
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Fertilizer is an essential commodity traded in international and domestic markets and spatial competition is important feature impacting interfirm rivalry. In the case of North American fertilizer, numerous plants have been announced to either expand or open new plants (nitrogen-based fertilizer plants), exerting competitive pressures on an industry with surplus capacity but highly competitive in terms of production costs and technology. Proposed new plants and expansions are being induced by changes in the composition of crops, changes in the price of natural gas which affects the cost of producing domestic anhydrous ammonia. Developments in the fertilizer industry have become more volatile in the post-COVID period, and concurrent with the escalation in fuel prices, the Ukraine invasion, related embargoes on Russian trade, the world's largest exporter, and operations of the Grain Corridor. The purpose of this study is to quantify risks for plant expansion (brownfield and greenfield) of nitrogen fertilizer plants in North America, given the spatial competition and the corresponding dynamic market boundaries. Specifically, we quantify risks associated with fertilizer plant expansions, identify the optimal locations of new plants, and characterize spatial competition as a result of new entrants. A model is specified that integrates Geographical Information Systems (GIS) data into a stochastic mixed-integer network spatial optimization model using Monte Carlo simulations to account for risk in the random variables. The results are reprocessed into GIS for interpretation. The impact of risk in these variables results in market boundaries that are random. Specifically, competition for these new plants has embedded risks for new entrants on the probability of production and market penetration.

量化竞争和需求对化肥厂选址风险的影响
化肥是在国际和国内市场上交易的重要商品,空间竞争是影响企业间竞争的重要特征。就北美化肥而言,许多工厂已宣布扩建或开设新工厂(氮基化肥厂),这给一个产能过剩但在生产成本和技术方面具有高度竞争力的行业带来了竞争压力。拟议的新工厂和扩建是由作物成分的变化、影响国内无水氨生产成本的天然气价格的变化引起的。在后新冠疫情期间,化肥行业的发展变得更加动荡,与此同时,燃料价格上涨、入侵乌克兰、对世界最大出口国俄罗斯贸易的相关禁运以及粮食走廊的运营。本研究的目的是量化北美氮肥厂扩建(棕地和绿地)的风险,考虑到空间竞争和相应的动态市场边界。具体而言,我们量化了与化肥厂扩建相关的风险,确定了新工厂的最佳位置,并将空间竞争定性为新进入者的结果。指定了一个模型,该模型使用蒙特卡罗模拟将地理信息系统(GIS)数据集成到随机混合整数网络空间优化模型中,以考虑随机变量中的风险。将结果重新处理到GIS中进行解释。风险在这些变量中的影响导致市场边界是随机的。具体而言,这些新工厂的竞争为新进入者的生产和市场渗透带来了风险。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
2.40%
发文量
53
期刊介绍: The purpose of the journal is also to stimulate international dialog among academics, industry participants, traders, investors, and policymakers with mutual interests in commodity markets. The mandate for the journal is to present ongoing work within commodity economics and finance. Topics can be related to financialization of commodity markets; pricing, hedging, and risk analysis of commodity derivatives; risk premia in commodity markets; real option analysis for commodity project investment and production; portfolio allocation including commodities; forecasting in commodity markets; corporate finance for commodity-exposed corporations; econometric/statistical analysis of commodity markets; organization of commodity markets; regulation of commodity markets; local and global commodity trading; and commodity supply chains. Commodity markets in this context are energy markets (including renewables), metal markets, mineral markets, agricultural markets, livestock and fish markets, markets for weather derivatives, emission markets, shipping markets, water, and related markets. This interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary journal will cover all commodity markets and is thus relevant for a broad audience. Commodity markets are not only of academic interest but also highly relevant for many practitioners, including asset managers, industrial managers, investment bankers, risk managers, and also policymakers in governments, central banks, and supranational institutions.
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