{"title":"Microstructure and high-frequency price discovery in the soybean complex","authors":"Xinquan Zhou , Guillaume Bagnarosa , Alexandre Gohin , Joost M.E. Pennings , Philippe Debie","doi":"10.1016/j.jcomm.2023.100314","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We develop a theoretical framework and propose a relevant empirical analysis of the soybean-complex prices’ cointegration relationships in a high-frequency setting. We allow for heterogeneous expectations among traders on the multi-asset price dynamics and characterize the resulting market behaviour. We demonstrate that the asset prices’ autoregressive matrix rank and the speed of reversion towards the long-term equilibrium are related to the market realized and potential liquidity, unlike the cointegrating vector. Our empirical application to the soybean complex, where we control for volatility, supports our theoretical results when the price idleness of the different assets is properly accounted for. Our analysis further suggests that the presence of cointegration among assets is related to the time of day and the contract maturities traded at a given time.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45111,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commodity Markets","volume":"30 ","pages":"Article 100314"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Commodity Markets","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851323000041","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
We develop a theoretical framework and propose a relevant empirical analysis of the soybean-complex prices’ cointegration relationships in a high-frequency setting. We allow for heterogeneous expectations among traders on the multi-asset price dynamics and characterize the resulting market behaviour. We demonstrate that the asset prices’ autoregressive matrix rank and the speed of reversion towards the long-term equilibrium are related to the market realized and potential liquidity, unlike the cointegrating vector. Our empirical application to the soybean complex, where we control for volatility, supports our theoretical results when the price idleness of the different assets is properly accounted for. Our analysis further suggests that the presence of cointegration among assets is related to the time of day and the contract maturities traded at a given time.
期刊介绍：
The purpose of the journal is also to stimulate international dialog among academics, industry participants, traders, investors, and policymakers with mutual interests in commodity markets. The mandate for the journal is to present ongoing work within commodity economics and finance. Topics can be related to financialization of commodity markets; pricing, hedging, and risk analysis of commodity derivatives; risk premia in commodity markets; real option analysis for commodity project investment and production; portfolio allocation including commodities; forecasting in commodity markets; corporate finance for commodity-exposed corporations; econometric/statistical analysis of commodity markets; organization of commodity markets; regulation of commodity markets; local and global commodity trading; and commodity supply chains. Commodity markets in this context are energy markets (including renewables), metal markets, mineral markets, agricultural markets, livestock and fish markets, markets for weather derivatives, emission markets, shipping markets, water, and related markets. This interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary journal will cover all commodity markets and is thus relevant for a broad audience. Commodity markets are not only of academic interest but also highly relevant for many practitioners, including asset managers, industrial managers, investment bankers, risk managers, and also policymakers in governments, central banks, and supranational institutions.
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