Earthquake early warning in Central America: The societal perspective

Abstract

Central America has an elevated seismic risk, resulting from the vulnerability of the building stock and steady population growth. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) aims to provide warning in advance of imminent shaking, allowing recipients to take action and reduce casualties during damaging motions. The Swiss Seismological Service (SED) has been collaborating with local seismic agencies to develop national EEW systems across Central America, which can potentially benefit nearly 47 million inhabitants. We conducted a public survey to comprehend the desire for EEW, the preferences for EEW attributes, and the current behaviour of people during earthquakes and the driving factors behind it. We recruited participants from Nicaragua (N = 513), Costa Rica (N = 1350), Guatemala (N = 559), and El Salvador (N = 491). In all four countries, participants consider it necessary to have an EEW system, are tolerant of false alerts, and are likely to react promptly to alerts. The desirable alert threshold is for low felt intensities, ranging between MMI III to IV. We found that a significant number of respondents already take protective action when earthquakes strike, and appropriate reactions are expected to increase when EEW is available. Our survey is unique in providing insights into the social dimension of EEW systems in low-income regions with high earthquake risk and where no operational EEW system yet exists.