Exploring the nexus of climate variability, population dynamics, and maize production in Togo: Implications for global warming and food security

Abstract

Maize, which serves as the primary staple crop in Togo, plays a crucial role in supporting rural communities and ensuring food security. Comprehending the complex relationship between Togo's maize production, population dynamics, and climate variability is crucial for mitigating the impacts of global warming and guaranteeing long-term food security. The present study examines the climate patterns and their impact on maize cultivation in Togo for the period spanning from 1990 to 2020. During this temporal interval, significant variations were seen in important climate indices. The levels of rainfall and the frequency of wet days exhibited notable fluctuations, whereas the temperature and concentrations of air pollutants, specifically carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), had a persistent rising trajectory. The recorded temperature exhibited an increase from 27 ​°C in 1990 to 29 ​°C in 2020. The levels of CO₂ emissions had a substantial increase from 1000 ​kt in 1990 to an estimated 2500 ​kt in 2020. Similarly, the emissions of N₂O witnessed a notable rise of more than 800 ​kt over the same time frame. Using time series analysis, we examined the temporal characteristics and employed ARIMA predictive models to project maize production over the upcoming decade, considering the gradual decrease in rural population density. The studies highlight the significant implications of global warming on a worldwide scale, exerting a profound impact on the Earth. The agriculture sector, specifically maize production, had notable variations in yield and overall output. Notwithstanding the inherent fluctuations in output, maize continues to maintain its position as the most widely consumed and preferred crop in Togo, even in the face of the country's rapidly expanding population. As a result, Togo has increased its imports of maize to satisfy the growing demand. The present study sheds light on the intricate relationship between production parameters, including yield and quantity, and a range of environmental variables such as the frequency of precipitation, temperature, and levels of N₂O, in addition to rural and urban population density. The statement underscores the pressing necessity to confront the issue of global warming and its subsequent impacts on agricultural methodologies. Furthermore, the results underscore the significance of considering population dynamics and climate variables in the prediction of forthcoming agricultural outcomes.