{"title":"Are there bubbles in shipping freight during COVID-19?","authors":"Khalid Khan , Adnan Khurshid , Sinem Derindere Köseoğlu","doi":"10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101319","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the potential bubbles' shipping freight rates during the pandemic through the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The results explore multiple bubbles in the freight rates during corona disease (COVID-19). Moreover, the result finds that Baltic Dry Index is the most explosive and shows four bubbles, followed by Baltic Clean Tanker Index. The volatile behavior has been more frequent and pronounced since the second quarter of 2021, mainly instigated by the economic recovery. The results detect four bubbles in Baltic Dry Index caused by strong demand for raw materials and uncertainty restrictions. Furthermore, a single bubble in the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index is caused by the increasing oil price, growing demand for floating storage while burst due to new restrictions of the second wave, declining oil prices, and shortages of vessels. The need for oil products, logistical problems and the highest oil prices are the leading determinants of Baltic Clean Tanker index bubbles.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47810,"journal":{"name":"Research in Transportation Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 101319"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Research in Transportation Economics","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885923000598","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
This study examines the potential bubbles' shipping freight rates during the pandemic through the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The results explore multiple bubbles in the freight rates during corona disease (COVID-19). Moreover, the result finds that Baltic Dry Index is the most explosive and shows four bubbles, followed by Baltic Clean Tanker Index. The volatile behavior has been more frequent and pronounced since the second quarter of 2021, mainly instigated by the economic recovery. The results detect four bubbles in Baltic Dry Index caused by strong demand for raw materials and uncertainty restrictions. Furthermore, a single bubble in the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index is caused by the increasing oil price, growing demand for floating storage while burst due to new restrictions of the second wave, declining oil prices, and shortages of vessels. The need for oil products, logistical problems and the highest oil prices are the leading determinants of Baltic Clean Tanker index bubbles.
期刊介绍：
Research in Transportation Economics is a journal devoted to the dissemination of high quality economics research in the field of transportation. The content covers a wide variety of topics relating to the economics aspects of transportation, government regulatory policies regarding transportation, and issues of concern to transportation industry planners. The unifying theme throughout the papers is the application of economic theory and/or applied economic methodologies to transportation questions.
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