Electricity Price spirals now or later: An emerging market experience

Q1 Social Sciences

Electricity Journal Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.tej.2023.107272

Sonal Gupta , Mohammad Younus Bhat

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Time series models have been employed to identify the structural breaks and the existence of volatility based on the behavior and direction of electricity prices. The models were tuned and validated with dataset consisting of the daily spot electricity prices of 13 bid areas of the Indian exchange-traded market for ten years. The Indian exchange-traded market is a diversified market divided into 13 bid areas, each consisting of states with unique trading characteristics. Hence it is vital to conduct an in-depth analysis of each to identify the problematic areas, key reasons behind it and further tame it, which has never been done before. The results revealed that the bid areas S1 and S2 depicts negative leverage effect predominantly due to the elections and transmission constraints. Whereas rest of the areas shows positive result with less price spirals due to changes in regulation, weather and new operational plants. Insights from the research encourages power market participants to further apply forecasting techniques and prepare a price risk mitigation model and reach out at a global level.

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电价现在或以后都会螺旋上升：新兴市场的经验

基于电价的行为和方向，采用时间序列模型来识别结构断裂和波动的存在。这些模型通过数据集进行了调整和验证，数据集包括印度交易所交易市场13个投标区域10年来的每日现货电价。印度交易所交易市场是一个多元化的市场，分为13个投标区，每个投标区由具有独特交易特征的州组成。因此，至关重要的是对每一个领域进行深入分析，以确定问题领域及其背后的关键原因，并进一步驯服它，这是以前从未做过的。结果表明，投标区域S1和S2主要由于选举和输电限制而呈现负杠杆效应。而其他地区则显示出积极的结果，由于监管、天气和新运营工厂的变化，价格螺旋下降的幅度较小。该研究的见解鼓励电力市场参与者进一步应用预测技术，准备价格风险缓解模型，并在全球范围内开展活动。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Electricity Journal Business, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

31 days

期刊介绍： The Electricity Journal is the leading journal in electric power policy. The journal deals primarily with fuel diversity and the energy mix needed for optimal energy market performance, and therefore covers the full spectrum of energy, from coal, nuclear, natural gas and oil, to renewable energy sources including hydro, solar, geothermal and wind power. Recently, the journal has been publishing in emerging areas including energy storage, microgrid strategies, dynamic pricing, cyber security, climate change, cap and trade, distributed generation, net metering, transmission and generation market dynamics. The Electricity Journal aims to bring together the most thoughtful and influential thinkers globally from across industry, practitioners, government, policymakers and academia. The Editorial Advisory Board is comprised of electric industry thought leaders who have served as regulators, consultants, litigators, and market advocates. Their collective experience helps ensure that the most relevant and thought-provoking issues are presented to our readers, and helps navigate the emerging shape and design of the electricity/energy industry.