Theory-driven or data-driven? Modelling ride-sourcing mode choices using integrated choice and latent variable model and multi-task learning deep neural networks

IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Yicong Liu, Patrick Loa, Kaili Wang, Khandker Nurul Habib
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Ride-sourcing services have had a disruptive impact on urban mobility. However, the perceived risk of contracting the COVID-19 virus while using these services has negatively affected people's willingness to travel by this mode. Therefore, it is essential to understand the factors influencing ride-sourcing usage during and after the pandemic. This study utilized data collected through stated preference experiments to model mode choice decisions during and after the pandemic. The study applied both theory-driven integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) models and data-driven multi-task learning (MTL) deep neural network framework. The study found that the MTL models achieved the highest prediction accuracies. Additionally, econometric information was derived from both ICLV and MTL models. The marginal effects of level-of-service (LOS) variables were largely agreed between the ICLV and MTL models. However, only the latent variables from the ICLV models presented meaningful behavioural interpretations. The study found that individuals who believed there was greater risk associated with ride-sourcing during the pandemic were less likely to use these services. The ICLV model interpretations also indicate that the perceived safety of using ride-sourcing services is higher during the post-pandemic period compared to during the pandemic period. This finding provides reassurance regarding the recovery and growth of ride-sourcing usage in the post-pandemic era.

理论驱动还是数据驱动?使用集成选择和潜变量模型以及多任务学习深度神经网络对拼车模式选择进行建模
拼车采购服务对城市出行产生了破坏性影响。然而,在使用这些服务时感染新冠肺炎病毒的风险对人们使用这种模式旅行的意愿产生了负面影响。因此,了解疫情期间和之后影响乘车来源使用的因素至关重要。这项研究利用通过陈述偏好实验收集的数据,对疫情期间和之后的模式选择决策进行建模。该研究应用了理论驱动的综合选择和潜在变量(ICLV)模型以及数据驱动的多任务学习(MTL)深度神经网络框架。研究发现,MTL模型的预测精度最高。此外,计量经济学信息来源于ICLV和MTL模型。服务水平(LOS)变量的边际效应在ICLV和MTL模型之间基本一致。然而,只有ICLV模型中的潜在变量提供了有意义的行为解释。研究发现,那些认为在疫情期间与拼车采购相关的风险更大的人不太可能使用这些服务。ICLV模型解释还表明,与疫情期间相比,疫情后时期使用拼车外包服务的感知安全性更高。这一发现为后疫情时代乘车采购使用的复苏和增长提供了保证。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
31
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