Escape underway: Malthusian pressures in late imperial Moscow

IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Vadim Kufenko , Ekaterina Khaustova , Vincent Geloso
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Did late Imperial Russia suffer from Malthusian pressures? At first glance, with its rising levels of population and per capita income, it seems Russia was in a transition away from Malthusian equilibrium. However, the joint increase in population and per capita income could also have been the result of Russia’s high land-to-labor ratio. Which of the two is it? Such a problem is a frequent one in economic history, as many frontier economies have high land-to-labor ratios, which foil the researcher’s ability to determine whether an economy was transitioning or whether it was growing because of weak land constraints. In this paper, we use quarterly demographic and economic data from Moscow (which we take as a proxy for Russia) in conjunction with a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression approach to determine whether the Russian economy was transitioning away from a Malthusian equilibrium. We find signs of Malthusian pressures still operating while wages had stopped responding to changes in death and birth rates. This combination suggests that a vulnerable transition was truly underway even though a Malthusian shadow remained.

逃亡途中:帝国晚期莫斯科的马尔萨斯压力
帝国晚期的俄罗斯是否受到马尔萨斯压力的影响?乍一看,随着人口和人均收入水平的上升,俄罗斯似乎正处于偏离马尔萨斯均衡的过渡阶段。然而,人口和人均收入的共同增长也可能是俄罗斯高土地劳动比的结果。是哪一个?这样的问题在经济史上是一个常见的问题,因为许多前沿经济体的土地与劳动力比率很高,这使得研究人员无法确定一个经济体是在转型,还是因为土地约束较弱而在增长。在本文中,我们使用来自莫斯科的季度人口和经济数据(我们将其作为俄罗斯的代表)与协整向量自回归方法相结合,以确定俄罗斯经济是否正在从马尔萨斯均衡过渡。当工资不再对死亡率和出生率的变化作出反应时,我们发现马尔萨斯压力仍然存在的迹象。这种结合表明,尽管马尔萨斯的阴影仍然存在,但脆弱的转型确实正在进行。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
8.70%
发文量
27
期刊介绍: Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.
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