Evaluating Turnover Intention as a Proxy for Behavior in the Federal Public Service: Evidence from Two Surveys of Senior Civil Servants

Abstract

Studies of turnover in the federal public service often study intention rather than behavior and studies that evaluate the reliability of intention as a proxy for that behavior are rare. This article uses a novel data set that measures exit intention and behavior for the same senior civil servants to evaluate two aspects of the reliability of turnover intention as a proxy for behavior: (1) prediction error and (2) similarity of marginal effects. Overall, exit intention is a problematic proxy for behavior because it consistently overestimates the probability of exit. While coefficients from models of intent tend to have the correct sign, the magnitudes of marginal effects can be misleading, tending to overestimate corresponding marginal effects in models of exit behavior. Moreover, coefficients do sometimes change signs between models. The article discusses the implications of these findings and suggests next steps to better use exit intention to understand exit behavior.