Using managers' expectations for ex-ante policy evaluation: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

IF 1.2 4区 管理学 Q3 ECONOMICS
Kohei Kawaguchi, Naomi Kodama, Hiroshi Kumanomido, Mari Tanaka
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Abstract

Evaluation of the impacts of government policies during an economic crisis is often delayed until the outcomes are realized. Policies can be better guided if they can be evaluated amid a crisis, before the realization of outcomes. This study examines whether survey data on the expectations of small business managers can help evaluate two high-stake subsidies for firms amid the COVID-19 crisis in Japan, namely, Subsidy Program for Sustaining Businesses (SPSB) and Employment Adjustment Subsidy (EAS). We evaluate the accuracy of managers' expectations, estimate the impact of subsidies on the expected firm survival, and compare it with the estimated impact on realized survival. We find that the managers' expectations on their future sales, survival rate, and the possibility of receiving these subsidies predict the realized outcomes, although they were highly pessimistic about their survival rates. We find that the estimated impacts of the SPSB on the expected survival rates have the same sign as the estimated impact on the realized survival rates, but the size is more than twice because of the pessimism on survival. The estimated impacts of the EAS are both insignificant. Therefore, although its impact may be overestimated, managers' expectations are useful for selecting an effective policy.

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利用管理者对事前政策评估的期望:来自新冠肺炎危机的证据
在经济危机期间,对政府政策影响的评估往往被推迟到结果实现之前。如果能够在危机中、在实现结果之前对政策进行评估,就可以更好地指导政策。本研究考察了关于小企业经理期望的调查数据是否有助于评估日本新冠肺炎危机期间对企业的两项高收入补贴,即持续企业补贴计划(SPSB)和就业调整补贴(EAS)。我们评估了管理者期望的准确性,估计了补贴对企业预期生存的影响,并将其与估计的对实现生存的影响进行了比较。我们发现,尽管管理者对自己的生存率高度悲观,但他们对未来销售额、生存率和获得这些补贴的可能性的预期预测了实现的结果。我们发现,SPSB对预期生存率的估计影响与对实现生存率的预测影响具有相同的符号,但由于对生存的悲观情绪,其大小是预期影响的两倍多。EAS的估计影响都是微不足道的。因此,尽管其影响可能被高估,但管理者的期望对于选择有效的政策是有用的。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
5.30%
发文量
43
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