Victoria

Abstract

The anticipated political highlight in Victoria was the state election that would be held on the last Saturday of November. The Daniel Andrews-led Labor Party was focusing on winning its third election in a row. Having first been elected in 2014, Labor had extended its majority in the Legislative Assembly in 2018. This election, however, would be the first in Victoria since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. With lingering debates about ethics and accountability in government, as well as health and the state's economy, Victorians would be treated to a vigorous contest by the major parties.

The second half of 2022 was a very busy period for those who were following ethics and accountability in government in Victoria. On 20 July, the recommendations from Operation Watts were released. This operation was the first that was jointly undertaken by the state's Independent Broad-based Anti-Corruption Commission (IBAC) and the state's Ombudsman. It examined claims of branch stacking in the ALP as well as alleged cases of Labor MPs misusing public money. The report highlighted that while some actions could not be regarded as criminal offences, there were examples of behaviours that may not have aligned with community expectations (Operation Watts Special Report, July 2022).

Operation Watts resulted in 21 recommendations that aimed to strengthen integrity and accountability in the public sector, but especially in the Victorian Parliament. These included establishing a new Parliamentary Ethics Committee and Parliamentary Integrity Commissioner. Additional recommendations included reviewing the Electorate Officers Code of Conduct to forbid staffers from undertaking party-political work during hours they were employed as an electorate officer, as well as stopping MPs from employing members of their family in electoral offices. Premier Daniel Andrews announced that all recommendations would be adopted and announced that “as leader of the party and leader of our state, I take full responsibility for that conduct” (The Age, 20 July 2022).

Additionally, the so-called ‘red shirts’ affair, in which approximately $400,000 of state money was reportedly misused by paying electoral officers and other staff to undertake party-related campaigning in the lead-up to the 2014 election, re-appeared on the political radar (see The Guardian, 28 July 2022). The Ombudsman had already presented a report on these matters to the Victorian Parliament in 2018 but had been asked to investigate once more by the Legislative Council, a move that was spearheaded by former Labor minister, Adem Somyurek.

The Ombudsman also took the opportunity to restate calls for an independent investigative agency, making ethics and accountability critical issues in the political debate in Victoria.

These issues provided the opposition leader, Matthew Guy, with opportunities to attack the government. The focus, however, quickly shifted to the Liberal Party after it was reported that Mitch Catlin, Matthew Guy's chief of staff, had asked an anonymous donor to pay $100,000 to his private business. Under this arrangement, the donor would pay approximately $8,300 a month to Catlin's company (The Age, 2 August 2022). While a formal contract was not signed, Guy was associated with the affair as leaked emails reportedly showed Catlin asking the opposition leader to forward the proposed contract to the benefactor. While Catlin promptly resigned, the damage for the Coalition was significant. The affair diminished Guy's capacity to attack the government on matters of integrity, with commentators questioning Guy's judgment (The Age, 5 August 2022).

The Liberal leader was further side-tracked when details emerged of staffing changes within his office. Guy was reported to have hired a close personal friend, Nick McGowan, to be his new chief of staff (The Age, 8 August 2022). McGowan was also the Liberal Party's candidate for the North-Eastern Metropolitan region. The appointment seemingly led to further divisions within the party as some Liberal MPs felt “angered” by Guy's choice (The Age, 8 August 2022). It was also reported that additional staff members, including the director of communications, had left Guy's office following McGowan's appointment (Sky News, 12 August 2022). These events arguably had a negative impact on the Coalition's electoral support as they contributed to a sense that the opposition was still struggling to settle its internal structures before the formal start of the election campaign.

With just three months to go before the state election, opinion polls started to become a prominent feature of the reporting on Victorian politics. On 27 August, Newspoll released figures that showed Labor was likely to retain government as it led the Coalition 56 per cent to 44 per cent on the all-important two-party preferred measure. Moreover, 51 per cent of respondents said that Daniel Andrews would make the better premier compared to just 34 per cent for Matthew Guy. This aligned with data from Roy Morgan which reported a 60.5 per cent to 39.5 per cent two-party preferred result on 14 August.

Furthermore, the opposition's attack on issues of trust and accountability in the Labor Party was seemingly not having an impact on the public's attitude towards the government. In a poll published in The Age on 25 August, 42 per cent of voters said that Labor was best placed to “govern with integrity and honesty”, while just 21 per cent of voters said the same for the Coalition. This, along with other published opinion polls, indicated that the Coalition would struggle to increase its representation in the Victorian Parliament.

The government's performance in healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic was publicly scrutinised when, in September, the Inspector-General for Emergency Management (IGEM) released its review of the state's emergency call performance between December 2020 and May 2022. The report found that there had been 40 “potentially adverse events” during this period concerning delays and “33 of these patients did not survive their emergencies” (IGEM Report, September 2022, 6).

The review also considered the Emergency Services Telecommunications Authority (ESTA), the state's call centre for emergency services. The review found that the demands for ambulance services during the pandemic meant that ESTA struggled to answer calls quickly. The review also found that calls for ambulances increased “beyond historical highs, and emergency calls [were] queuing for completely unacceptable lengths of time – 10 minutes, 15 minutes, and longer” (IGEM Report, September 2022, p5). Premier Andrews responded to these findings by saying, “We apologise for a system that did not meet your needs, we absolutely apologise, and we appreciate just how challenging this will be for you” (ABC News, 6 September 2022).

This episode gave the state opposition new opportunities to criticise the government's performance in healthcare. It also provided the Liberal Party with a platform to make new announcements concerning health and hospitals. These included pledging $400 million to upgrade Maroondah Hospital to serve the eastern suburbs of Melbourne. It was reported that this took the opposition's commitments on health to over $6 billion which raised questions about how these projects would be funded. Opposition leader Guy promised that these projects would be completed by diverting funds allocated to the Suburban Rail Loop to healthcare.

This followed a critical contribution on 4 September in The Age by former ABC Radio Melbourne morning show presenter Jon Faine arguing that power had been concentrated in the premier's office and was now “more centralised than during the peak of the Kennett regime”.

Within this context, the final weeks before the election were marked by intensive campaigning and policy promises. Service delivery was prominent in the platforms for both major parties. The Liberal Party also avoided drawing attention to law-and-order issues following the party's overemphasis of these matters in 2018. Rather, the Coalition seemingly presented a more positive policy plan which included significant spending promises.

Healthcare was a major area of focus, as would be expected in a state election. For example, Labor committed over $2 billion to building or upgrading hospitals across the state. In addition, there was a new $5,000 bonus that would be paid to recently graduated nurses and midwives who worked in the public health system for two years or more. The Coalition also focused on health and promised to reduce elective surgery waiting lists, as well as build or modernise over 25 hospitals (The Guardian, 25 November 2022). The Liberal Party also promised to provide dental vouchers and build the state's nursing capacity.

The cost of public transport was highlighted by both major parties. Labor sought to bring parity to V/Line and metropolitan train travel prices, while the Coalition promised to limit public transport prices to $2 a day. The major parties also promised significant spending in education. On climate change, the Coalition promised to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, compared to Labor's promise to do so by 2045 (The Guardian, 25 November 2022).

A major announcement by Labor was the re-establishment of the State Electricity Commission (SEC) which had previously been privatised by the Kennett Government in the mid 1990s. The SEC was a major feature of Daniel Andrews' campaign launch in Cranbourne. The premier argued that re-starting the SEC would lead to lower power costs and provide employment opportunities for thousands of Victorians. The SEC announcement was at the core of Labor's economic, environmental, and energy narrative, with the theme of the campaign labelled ‘Doing What Matters’ (The Age, 13 November 2022).

Guy launched the Liberal Party's campaign in Port Melbourne on the same day as Labor (13 November) with a focus on integrity, cost of living, and service delivery. A major feature of the Liberal campaign narrative was to reduce energy costs and advance new natural gas projects to provide energy in the state (The Age, 13 November 2022). At the same time, Guy acknowledged the difficulty of winning government by describing it as “like climbing Mount Everest without oxygen. Here in Victoria, [where] Labor has been in government for 19 of the past 23 years, it's like doing it in a blizzard, backwards” (The Age, 13 November 2022).

At the previous election in 2018, Labor won 55 of the 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly, the Liberal Party won 21 seats, and the Nationals won six seats (for a combined total of 27 for the Coalition). The Greens also won three seats in addition to three independents. To regain government, the Coalition needed to win at least an additional 17 seats.

Following the close of polls at 6 pm on 26 November, early results showed that the Coalition's performance continued to be weak and that it would struggle to make up any ground. By the end of counting, Labor had won 56 seats (a net gain of one seat), and the Greens had also increased their representation by one (for a new total of four), while all independents had been defeated. The Coalition won 28 seats (a net gain of one seat). The Coalition result includes the by-election for Narracan which was held in January 2023 following the death of the Nationals candidate just days before the November election.

Election data from Antony Green on the ABC website provides a useful resource that charts the performance of the parties (see also Victorian Electoral Commission). While Labor won the election, it did lose some support. On a state-wide basis, the primary vote for Labor fell by 6.2 per cent to 36.6 per cent, while the Liberal primary vote fell 0.6 per cent to 29.8 per cent. The Greens' primary vote rose by 0.8 per cent to 11.5 per cent, while the National Party's primary vote fell by just 0.1 per cent to 4.7 per cent. Small parties also experienced an increase in support, with the Family First Party, Animal Justice Party, and Freedom Party attracting a combined primary vote of over 7 per cent.

A closer exploration of districts gives an indication of what was occurring in the Victorian electorate. In provincial seats such as Bendigo East, for example, Labor's primary vote fell by 2 per cent, which translated to a two-party preferred swing of 1.2 per cent to the Liberal candidate. This, however, was inconsequential as Labor retained the seat once preferences were distributed; the two-party preferred vote saw Labor on 60.9 per cent and the Liberal Party on 39.1 per cent. Similarly, in Bendigo West, Labor's primary vote fell by 7 per cent, but this had a minor impact on the two-party preferred result where it retained the seat with a 14 per cent margin.

Comparable results occurred in metropolitan seats that were held by Labor. In the traditionally Labor electorate of Broadmeadows, for example, Labor lost 10.8 per cent of its primary vote but held the seat with a smaller, but still very strong, margin of 15 per cent. This trend continued in so-called sand-belt seats across the south-eastern bayside electorates such as Carrum and Mordialloc where Labor's primary vote fell, but the party was in no danger of losing these electorates. These results showed that some voters were turning against Labor, but not to the extent that it would cause a change of government.

The performance of the Liberal Party in eastern-metropolitan seats suggested that voters felt it was ill-prepared to form government. For example, the new seat of Ashwood, which replaced Mount Waverley, was notionally held by Labor by just 2 per cent. Mount Waverley had been held by the Liberal Party in the past, so it was expected that if the party was to have any chance of reclaiming government it would have to win Ashwood. The result, however, was that the Liberal primary vote fell by 7 per cent. Ashwood became a safe seat for Labor with a new margin of over 6 per cent. A similar result occurred in Bayswater which had been redistributed and was held by the Liberal Party by less than 1 per cent. The election resulted in the Liberal primary vote falling by 12 per cent, and Labor winning the seat with a two-party preferred margin of 4 per cent. Labor also won the electorates of Hastings and Glen Waverley from the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party's positive performances were in Nepean, where former professional tennis player Sam Groth was elected, as well as in Hawthorn as John Pesutto, who lost the seat in 2018, was returned.

The National Party, on the other hand, achieved very strong results. The party was able to retain all seats, and won the regional electorates of Mildura, Morwell, and Shepparton. Similarly, the Greens retained the three seats they held and won the inner-metropolitan seat of Richmond. So-called ‘teal’ independents, who had performed strongly in the federal election in May, did not win representation in the Victorian Parliament.

With the result of the election clear before 11pm, Matthew Guy conceded defeat. He highlighted positive results, such as swings against Labor, and did not immediately resign as leader. Shortly after, Daniel Andrews addressed his supporters by claiming victory. In a speech in which he cited former Prime Minister Paul Keating's advice on leadership, and arguing that “hope always defeats hate”, Andrews interpreted the result as strong support for his government's agenda.

The results in the Legislative Council took more time to finalise and were more positive for the Coalition and Greens. In the previous election, Labor held 18 of the 40 seats in the upper chamber, while the Coalition had 11, the Greens one, and a crossbench of 10. In 2022, Labor lost three seats, while the Coalition gained three. The Greens increased their representation to four, while the crossbench was now comprised of seven MPs, two of whom were from Legalise Cannabis Victoria. This meant that to pass bills through the parliament, Labor would have to work with the crossbench MPs in the upper house.

Matthew Guy resigned as Liberal leader the day after the election, and the Liberal Party began a period of self-reflection. Some within the party argued that its membership base was too narrow. Former Premier Ted Baillieu believed the party needed “generational renewal” and that many MPs needed to be replaced by new talent (The Age, 27 November 2022). Others argued that campaigning strategies and organisational reform were required to strengthen the party's performance in the future.

While the Liberal Party was engaged in deep retrospection, the new Andrews Ministry was sworn in with two new ministers. Enver Erdogan became the new minister for portfolios including Corrections, Youth Justice and Victim Support, while Natalie Suleyman became minister for portfolios including Veterans, Small Business and Youth.

David Southwick remained as deputy leader, while Georgie Crozier became opposition leader in the Legislative Council.

Having experienced major social, economic, and health disruptions due to COVID-19 in the previous parliamentary term, the Victorian community made a clear electoral choice in 2022. As many voters started to think about their summer plans, the 60^th Parliament of Victoria was opened on 20 December and the Andrews-led Labor Party began its third consecutive term in government.