Organising Thinking about Disinflation Policy*

Abstract

This paper offers a plain model to organise thinking about the disinflation policy. It exploits the insight that monetary and fiscal policy are intertwined. The model links inflationary expectations, monetary policy and fiscal policy, and contemplates a disinflation policy consisting of two plans, not necessarily connected: a monetary plan and a fiscal plan. The central question examined is which type of policy generates a lower policy interest rate – a monetary plan without fiscal cooperation or a monetary plan with fiscal austerity? The economic logic articulated by the model generates the following answer: the equilibrium policy rate set by the central bank can always be brought down by reducing the budget deficit. This qualitatively unambiguous prediction may be dependent on silent omissions, which are briefly discussed at the end of the paper.