The ripple effects of large-scale transport infrastructure investment

IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Damiaan Persyn, Javier Barbero, Jorge Díaz-Lanchas, Patrizio Lecca, Giovanni Mandras, Simone Salotti
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

We analyze the general equilibrium effects of an asymmetric decrease in transport costs, combining a large-scale spatial dynamic general equilibrium model for 267 European NUTS-2 regions with a detailed transport model at the level of individual road segments. As a case study, we consider the impact of the road infrastructure investments in Central and Eastern Europe of the European Cohesion Policy. Our analysis suggests that the decrease in transportation costs benefits the targeted regions via substantial increases in gross domestic product (GDP) and welfare compared to the baseline, and a small increase in population. The geographic information embedded in the transport model leads to relatively large predicted benefits in peripheral countries such as Greece and Finland, which hardly receive funds, but whose trade links cross Central and Eastern Europe, generating profit from the investments there. The richer, Western European nontargeted regions also enjoy a higher GDP after the investment in the East, but these effects are smaller. Thus, the policy reduces interregional disparities. There are rippled patterns in the predicted policy spillovers. In nontargeted countries, regions trading more intensely with regions where the investment is taking place on average benefit more compared to other regions within the same country, but also compared to neighboring regions across an international border. We uncover that regions importing goods from Central and Eastern Europe enjoy the largest spillovers. These regions become more competitive and expand exports, to the detriment of other regions in the same country.

Abstract Image

大规模交通基础设施投资的连锁反应
我们分析了运输成本不对称下降的一般均衡效应,将267个欧洲NUTS-2地区的大规模空间动态一般均衡模型与单个路段层面的详细运输模型相结合。作为案例研究,我们考虑了欧洲凝聚力政策对中欧和东欧道路基础设施投资的影响。我们的分析表明,与基线相比,交通成本的降低通过国内生产总值(GDP)和福利的大幅增加以及人口的小幅增加使目标地区受益。交通模型中嵌入的地理信息在希腊和芬兰等周边国家带来了相对较大的预测收益,这些国家几乎没有资金,但其贸易联系横跨中欧和东欧,从那里的投资中产生利润。富裕的西欧非目标地区在东部投资后也享有更高的GDP,但这些影响较小。因此,该政策减少了区域间的差异。预测的政策溢出效应存在波动模式。在非目标国家,与投资所在地区的贸易更加激烈的地区,与同一国家内的其他地区相比,以及与国际边界上的邻近地区相比,平均受益更多。我们发现,从中欧和东欧进口商品的地区具有最大的溢出效应。这些地区变得更有竞争力并扩大出口,损害了同一国家的其他地区。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
6.70%
发文量
54
期刊介绍: The Journal of Regional Science (JRS) publishes original analytical research at the intersection of economics and quantitative geography. Since 1958, the JRS has published leading contributions to urban and regional thought including rigorous methodological contributions and seminal theoretical pieces. The JRS is one of the most highly cited journals in urban and regional research, planning, geography, and the environment. The JRS publishes work that advances our understanding of the geographic dimensions of urban and regional economies, human settlements, and policies related to cities and regions.
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