Commodity prices under the threat of operational disruptions: Labor strikes at copper mines

IF 3.7 4区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Commodity Markets Pub Date : 2023-10-17 DOI:10.1016/j.jcomm.2023.100365

Viviana Fernandez , Boris Pastén-Henríquez , Pablo Tapia-Griñen , Rodrigo Wagner

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The threat of short-term supply disruptions may matter for commodity prices, although their magnitude is hard to detect, for example due to anticipation, storage and to the relatively short duration of disruption events. This article explores global commodity returns for copper around labor strikes in Chile mines between 1910 and 2010. In the five days around strikes, copper display cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) close to 200 basis points (bps). Consistent with the threat of supply disruptions, the effect comes almost fully from strikes at larger mines (CAR≈ 500 bps). Moreover, the price-increasing effect of strikes is stronger when copper inventories are scarce, as measured by the interest-adjusted basis. Despite strikes being transitory events, we also find a mirroring appreciation of the USD/CLP commodity currency.

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运营中断威胁下的大宗商品价格:铜矿工人罢工

短期供应中断的威胁可能对商品价格产生影响，尽管由于预期、储存和中断事件持续时间相对较短等原因，其程度难以察觉。本文探讨了1910年至2010年智利矿山工人罢工前后铜的全球商品回报。在罢工前后的5天里，铜的累计异常收益率(CAR)接近200个基点。与供应中断的威胁一致，影响几乎完全来自大型矿山的罢工(CAR≈500 bps)。此外，按利率调整后的基准衡量，当铜库存不足时，罢工的涨价效应更强。尽管罢工是暂时的事件，但我们也发现了美元/人民币商品货币的镜像升值。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Commodity Markets Multiple-

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

2.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： The purpose of the journal is also to stimulate international dialog among academics, industry participants, traders, investors, and policymakers with mutual interests in commodity markets. The mandate for the journal is to present ongoing work within commodity economics and finance. Topics can be related to financialization of commodity markets; pricing, hedging, and risk analysis of commodity derivatives; risk premia in commodity markets; real option analysis for commodity project investment and production; portfolio allocation including commodities; forecasting in commodity markets; corporate finance for commodity-exposed corporations; econometric/statistical analysis of commodity markets; organization of commodity markets; regulation of commodity markets; local and global commodity trading; and commodity supply chains. Commodity markets in this context are energy markets (including renewables), metal markets, mineral markets, agricultural markets, livestock and fish markets, markets for weather derivatives, emission markets, shipping markets, water, and related markets. This interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary journal will cover all commodity markets and is thus relevant for a broad audience. Commodity markets are not only of academic interest but also highly relevant for many practitioners, including asset managers, industrial managers, investment bankers, risk managers, and also policymakers in governments, central banks, and supranational institutions.