Stock returns and the Spanish flu, 1918–1920

IF 2.6 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101543

Marco Del Angel , Caroline Fohlin , Marc D. Weidenmier

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We study the impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu on U.S. stock prices. Using a new weekly hand collected sample of 131 firms that traded on the NYSE, we examine the impact of the four waves of the flu on stock returns using panel regressions. We find that the second and fourth wave of the pandemic significantly lowered stock returns by 65.5 and 21.6 percent relative to the sample mean return, respectively. The large, but temporary impact of the virus on stock returns can probably be attributed to the fact that, unlike Covid-19, the flu hit the working age population particularly hard.

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1918-1920年，股票收益和西班牙流感

我们研究1918年西班牙流感对美国股票价格的影响。使用新的每周手工收集的样本，在纽约证券交易所交易的131家公司，我们检查四波流感对股票回报的影响使用面板回归。我们发现，相对于样本平均回报率，第二波和第四波疫情显著降低了股票回报率65.5%和21.6%。这种病毒对股票回报的巨大但暂时的影响可能归因于这样一个事实，即与Covid-19不同，流感对劳动年龄人口的影响尤其严重。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Explorations in Economic History Multiple-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

8.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.