Replication: Do coaches stick with what barely worked? Evidence of outcome bias in sports

IF 2.5 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Psychology Pub Date : 2023-08-06 DOI:10.1016/j.joep.2023.102664

Pascal Flurin Meier, Raphael Flepp, Egon Franck

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We replicate the finding of Lefgren et al. (2015) showing that professional basketball coaches in the NBA discontinuously change their starting lineup more often after narrow losses than after narrow wins. This result is consistent with outcome bias because such narrow outcomes are conditionally uninformative. As our paper shows, this pattern is not restricted to the NBA; we also find evidence of outcome bias in the top women’s professional basketball league and college basketball. Finally, we show that outcome bias in coaching decisions generalizes to the National Football League (NFL). We conclude that outcome bias is credible and robust, although it has weakened over time in some instances.

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重复:教练是否坚持那些几乎不起作用的方法?运动结果偏倚的证据

我们复制了Lefgren等人的发现。（2015）表明，NBA的职业篮球教练在险胜后更频繁地不连续地更换首发阵容。这一结果与结果偏差一致，因为这种狭窄的结果是有条件的无信息的。正如我们的论文所表明的，这种模式并不局限于NBA；我们还发现，在顶级女子职业篮球联赛和大学篮球比赛中存在结果偏差的证据。最后，我们证明了教练决策中的结果偏差适用于美国国家橄榄球联盟（NFL）。我们得出的结论是，结果偏差是可信的，而且是稳健的，尽管在某些情况下随着时间的推移，它已经减弱。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Psychology Multiple-

CiteScore

5.20

自引率

31.40%

发文量

审稿时长

63 days

期刊介绍： The Journal aims to present research that will improve understanding of behavioral, in particular psychological, aspects of economic phenomena and processes. The Journal seeks to be a channel for the increased interest in using behavioral science methods for the study of economic behavior, and so to contribute to better solutions of societal problems, by stimulating new approaches and new theorizing about economic affairs. Economic psychology as a discipline studies the psychological mechanisms that underlie economic behavior. It deals with preferences, judgments, choices, economic interaction, and factors influencing these, as well as the consequences of judgements and decisions for economic processes and phenomena. This includes the impact of economic institutions upon human behavior and well-being. Studies in economic psychology may relate to different levels of aggregation, from the household and the individual consumer to the macro level of whole nations. Economic behavior in connection with inflation, unemployment, taxation, economic development, as well as consumer information and economic behavior in the market place are thus among the fields of interest. The journal also encourages submissions dealing with social interaction in economic contexts, like bargaining, negotiation, or group decision-making. The Journal of Economic Psychology contains: (a) novel reports of empirical (including: experimental) research on economic behavior; (b) replications studies; (c) assessments of the state of the art in economic psychology; (d) articles providing a theoretical perspective or a frame of reference for the study of economic behavior; (e) articles explaining the implications of theoretical developments for practical applications; (f) book reviews; (g) announcements of meetings, conferences and seminars.