A novel Bayesian-inference-based method for global sensitivity analysis of system reliability with multiple failure modes

IF 5.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Qiangqiang Zhao, Tengfei Wu, Jinyan Duan, Jun Hong
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Global reliability sensitivity analysis aims at quantifying the effects of each random source on failure probability or reliability over their whole distribution range and is highly concerned in reliability design and uncertainty control. And in practice, a structure or product usually has more than one component impacting their performance safety, which is essentially a system reliability problem. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel Bayesian-inference-based method for moment-based global sensitivity analysis of system reliability with multiple failure modes. First, the limit-state function of each component involved in the system is linearly approximated based on the reliability index. Then, the global reliability sensitivity is transformed into a problem of multivariable Gaussian probability within a given safe region where the dimension number is double of the failure modes. In this case, the Bayesian-inference-driven expectation propagation technique is introduced to solve this intractable problem in an analytical manner, based on which the closed-form solution to the global reliability sensitivity for system with multiple components is accordingly derived. Finally, a numerical case, a vehicle subjected to impact, a cantilever beam and a practical engineering application to a four-panel spaceborne deployable plane antenna are studied to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method by comparison with Monte Carlo simulation.

一种新的基于贝叶斯推理的多失效模式系统可靠性全局灵敏度分析方法
全局可靠性灵敏度分析旨在量化每个随机源在其整个分布范围内对失效概率或可靠性的影响,在可靠性设计和不确定性控制中备受关注。在实践中,一个结构或产品通常有多个组件影响其性能安全,这本质上是一个系统可靠性问题。因此,本文提出了一种新的基于贝叶斯推理的方法,用于基于矩的多失效模式系统可靠性全局灵敏度分析。首先,基于可靠性指标对系统中涉及的每个部件的极限状态函数进行线性近似。然后,将全局可靠性灵敏度转化为给定安全区域内的多变量高斯概率问题,其中维数是失效模式的两倍。在这种情况下,引入贝叶斯推理驱动的期望传播技术以分析的方式解决这一棘手问题,并在此基础上推导出多部件系统全局可靠性灵敏度的闭合形式解。最后,通过数值算例、车辆碰撞、悬臂梁以及四面板星载可展开平面天线的实际工程应用,与蒙特卡罗模拟进行了比较,验证了该方法的有效性。
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来源期刊
Structural Safety
Structural Safety 工程技术-工程:土木
CiteScore
11.30
自引率
8.60%
发文量
67
审稿时长
53 days
期刊介绍: Structural Safety is an international journal devoted to integrated risk assessment for a wide range of constructed facilities such as buildings, bridges, earth structures, offshore facilities, dams, lifelines and nuclear structural systems. Its purpose is to foster communication about risk and reliability among technical disciplines involved in design and construction, and to enhance the use of risk management in the constructed environment
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