Malaysia’s 14th General Election: dissecting the ‘Malaysian tsunami’—measuring the impacts of ethnicity and urban development on electoral outcomes

IF 0.6 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Asian Journal of Political Science Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI:10.1080/02185377.2020.1814363

J. Ng, G. J. Rangel, Y. Phung

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

ABSTRACT The 14th Malaysian general elections (GE14) resulted in a regime change not experienced since independence. While ethnicity has been an overriding factor in determining electoral outcomes, urbanization has recently been considered a competing factor that might weaken the effects of ethnicity. Using a new methodology to model the compositional effects of ethnicity, we analyse the effects of both factors on the GE14 in our regression models. The findings show that both ethnicity and urban development do affect electoral outcomes, with ethnicity being the more dominant factor. Additionally, multivariate results show that neither malapportionment nor redelineation explains electoral outcomes. We provide a dissection of the ‘Malaysian tsunami’ examining vote change patterns between GE13 and GE14 using an ethnic and rural-urban continuum. The analysis reveals that effects of the tsunami are not evenly spread across ethnic groups and geographical regions, with the Malay majority and ethnically mixed seats displaying contrasting voting patterns.

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马来西亚第14届大选：剖析“马来西亚海啸”——衡量种族和城市发展对选举结果的影响

摘要第14届马来西亚大选引发了独立以来从未有过的政权更迭。虽然种族是决定选举结果的首要因素，但城市化最近被认为是一个可能削弱种族影响的竞争因素。使用一种新的方法来模拟种族的组成效应，我们在回归模型中分析了这两个因素对GE14的影响。研究结果表明，种族和城市发展都会影响选举结果，其中种族是更主要的因素。此外，多变量结果表明，无论是支持率偏低还是重新划分都不能解释选举结果。我们使用种族和城乡连续体对“马来西亚海啸”进行了剖析，考察了GE13和GE14之间的选票变化模式。分析显示，海啸的影响并没有均匀地分布在不同的种族和地理区域，占多数的马来人和种族混合的席位显示出截然不同的投票模式。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Asian Journal of Political Science POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Asian Journal of Political Science ( AJPS) is an international refereed journal affiliated to the Graduate School of Public Administration, Seoul National University. Published since 1993, AJPS is a leading journal on Asian politics and governance. It publishes high-quality original articles in major areas of political science, including comparative politics, political thought, international relations, public policy, and public administration, with specific reference to Asian regions and countries. AJPS aims to address some of the most contemporary political and administrative issues in Asia (especially in East, South, and Southeast Asia) at the local, national, and global levels. The journal can be of great value to academic experts, researchers, and students in the above areas of political science as well as to practical policy makers, state institutions, and international agencies.