Comparing Methods for the Regionalization of Intensity−Duration−Frequency (IDF) Curve Parameters in Sparsely-Gauged and Ungauged Areas of Central Chile

IF 3.1 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrology Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI:10.3390/hydrology10090179

Claudia Sangüesa, R. Pizarro, B. Ingram, Alfredo Ibáñez, Diego Rivera, P. García-Chevesich, J. Pino, F. Pérez, F. Balocchi, Francisco Peña

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Estimating intensity−duration−frequency (IDF) curves requires local historical information of precipitation intensity. When such information is unavailable, as in areas without rain gauges, it is necessary to consider other methods to estimate curve parameters. In this study, three methods were explored to estimate IDF curves in ungauged areas: Kriging (KG), Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), and Storm Index (SI). To test the viability of these methods, historical data collected from 31 rain gauges distributed in central Chile, 35° S to 38° S, are used. As a result of the reduced number of rain gauges to evaluate the performance of each method, we used LOOCV (Leaving One Out Cross Validation). The results indicate that KG was limited due to the sparse distribution of rain gauges in central Chile. SI (a linear scaling method) showed the smallest prediction error in all of the ungauged locations, and outperformed both KG and IDW. However, the SI method does not provide estimates of uncertainty, as is possible with KG. The simplicity of SI renders it a viable method for extrapolating IDF curves to locations without data in the central zone of Chile.

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智利中部稀疏测量和未测量地区强度-持续时间-频率（IDF）曲线参数区划方法的比较

估计强度-持续时间-频率（IDF）曲线需要降水强度的当地历史信息。当这些信息不可用时，如在没有雨量计的地区，有必要考虑其他方法来估计曲线参数。在本研究中，探索了三种方法来估计未经测量地区的IDF曲线：克里格（KG）、反向距离加权（IDW）和风暴指数（SI）。为了测试这些方法的可行性，使用了从智利中部35°S至38°S的31个雨量计收集的历史数据。由于评估每种方法性能的雨量计数量减少，我们使用了LOOCV（Leaving One Out Cross Validation）。结果表明，由于智利中部雨量计分布稀疏，KG受到限制。SI（一种线性定标方法）在所有未标定位置显示出最小的预测误差，并且优于KG和IDW。然而，SI方法不能像KG那样提供不确定性的估计。SI的简单性使其成为将IDF曲线外推到智利中部地区没有数据的位置的可行方法。

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来源期刊

Hydrology Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth-Surface Processes

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

21.90%

发文量

192

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences, including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology, hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, ecohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, data and information sciences, civil and environmental engineering are within scope. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site. Studies focused on urban hydrological issues are included.