Insurgent Recruitment Practices and Combat Effectiveness in Civil War: The Black September Conflict in Jordan

Abstract

Abstract Why are some insurgent groups more effective in combat than others? The existing scholarship on insurgent behavior tells us little about the diverse performances of nonstate armed actors in conflict. In this article, I develop a framework to measure and explain insurgent combat effectiveness during civil war centered around the relative rigor of recruitment practices. Groups whose recruitment practices are consistent and comprehensive (what I call robust, as opposed to deficient) generate the uniform shared purpose, discipline, and interpersonal trust needed to fight effectively in combat. Drawing on 105 interviews with ex-combatants and archival research in Jordan, Lebanon, and the United States, I show how different recruitment practices account for variation in insurgent combat effectiveness during the Black September period of the Jordanian Civil War (1968–1971). The article’s theory and findings add to scholarship on civil wars, insurgent behavior, and military effectiveness, and inform operations and intelligence analysis, counterinsurgency, and conflict management and peacebuilding efforts.