Linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and winter precipitation over southern China: CMIP6 simulation and projection

IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Qiwei Fan , Botao Zhou
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Abstract

Based on the simulations of 30 CMIP6 models, this paper evaluates their performance in simulating the linkage between the winter Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and precipitation over southern China (SC). Results show that 12 out of the 30 models can reproduce well the observed inverse relationship featuring a positive APO phase corresponding to a decrease in SC precipitation. Associated with the positive APO phase, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation dominates the southern part of Asia in the upper troposphere, and an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevails particularly in the lower troposphere of the South China Sea and the Malay Archipelago. Accordingly, the East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) shifts northward, and low-level northeasterly anomalies appear over SC, which yield anomalous descending motion and water vapor flux divergence in SC, respectively, hence decreasing the in-situ precipitation. Using the ensemble of the 12 models, the future relationship between the winter APO and SC precipitation under the SSP5-8.5 scenario was further projected. The projection indicates that the APO connection with SC precipitation will still be significant, but weakened slightly, during the second half of the 21st century as compared to the present. Such a weakening may result from the weaker linkage between SC precipitation and the meridional displacement of the EAWJ.

亚洲太平洋涛动与中国南方冬季降水的联系:CMIP6模拟与预测
基于30个CMIP6模式的模拟,评价了它们在模拟冬季亚太涛动(APO)与华南降水之间的联系方面的表现。结果表明,30个模式中有12个能较好地再现观测到的APO相正对应于SC降水减少的反比关系。与正APO相相关的是,对流层上层以异常反气旋环流为主,而南海和马来群岛对流层下层则以异常气旋环流为主。东亚西风急流(EAWJ)北上,在南太平洋上空出现低空东北风异常,分别导致南太平洋的异常下降运动和水汽通量辐散,从而导致原位降水减少。利用12个模式的集合,进一步预估了未来SSP5-8.5情景下冬季APO与SC降水的关系。预测结果表明,在21世纪下半叶,APO与南太平洋降水的联系仍将是显著的,但与目前相比略有减弱。这种减弱可能是由于南太平洋降水与东亚环流经向位移之间的联系减弱。
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来源期刊
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
8.70%
发文量
925
审稿时长
12 weeks
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