Modelling the Effect of the Interaction between Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Measures on COVID-19 Incidence

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Atsegine Canga, G. Bidegain
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Since December 2019, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly from Wuhan (China) across the globe, affecting more than 200 countries by mid-2021, with over 190 M reported cases and around 4 M fatalities. During the first year of the pandemic, affected countries implemented a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to control virus transmission. In December 2020, countries started administering several authorised vaccines under a limited supply scenario. In this context, a SEIR-type continuous-time deterministic disease model was developed to explore the effect of vaccination in terms of vaccination rate and efficacy, together with varying non-pharmaceutical protection measures, on disease incidence in the initial phase of vaccination. For this, the model incorporates (i) a protection measure including low (self-protection), medium (mobility limitation), high (closure of indoor facilities) and very high (lockdown) protection levels, (ii) quarantine for confirmed cases, and (iii) vaccination rate and efficacy of four type of vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, Astra Zeneca or Janssen). The model was veri[fi]ed and evaluated using the response timeline and vaccination strategies and rates in the Basque Country (N. Spain). Once the model performance was validated, different initial phase (when 30% of the population is vaccinated) vaccination scenarios were simulated, including (i) a realistic vaccine limited supply scenario, and (ii) four potential full vaccine supply scenarios where a unique vaccine type is administered. The Pfizer scenario resulted in the lowest prevalence of infection and cumulative mortality, particularly for low- and medium-level protection rates. However, regardless of the administered vaccine, a high-level protection scenario is the most effective to control the virus transmission and disease mortality in the studied initial phase of vaccination. The model here, which is based on this example, could be easily applied to other regions or countries, modifying the strategies implemented and initial conditions.
疫苗接种与非药物措施相互作用对新冠肺炎发病率影响的模型
自2019年12月以来,新型严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型(SARS-CoV-2)从中国武汉迅速传播到全球,截至2021年年中,已影响200多个国家,报告病例超过1.9亿例,死亡人数约400万。在大流行的第一年,受影响的国家实施了各种非药物干预措施来控制病毒传播。2020年12月,各国开始在供应有限的情况下接种几种授权疫苗。在这种情况下,开发了一个SEIR型连续时间确定性疾病模型,以探索疫苗接种在疫苗接种初期对疾病发生率和疗效的影响,以及不同的非药物保护措施。为此,该模型包括(i)保护措施,包括低(自我保护)、中(行动受限)、高(关闭室内设施)和极高(封锁)保护水平,(ii)确诊病例的隔离,以及(iii)四种疫苗(辉瑞、莫德纳、阿斯利康或杨森)的疫苗接种率和有效性。该模型使用巴斯克国家(西班牙北部)的反应时间表、疫苗接种策略和接种率进行了验证和评估。一旦模型性能得到验证,就模拟了不同的初始阶段(当30%的人口接种疫苗时)疫苗接种场景,包括(i)现实的疫苗有限供应场景,以及(ii)四种潜在的完全疫苗供应场景,其中接种了一种独特的疫苗类型。辉瑞的情况导致感染率和累计死亡率最低,尤其是中低水平的保护率。然而,无论接种何种疫苗,在研究的疫苗接种初始阶段,高水平的保护方案是控制病毒传播和疾病死亡率的最有效方案。基于这个例子的模型可以很容易地应用于其他地区或国家,从而修改所实施的战略和初始条件。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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