What Post COVID-19? Avoiding a «Twenty-first Century General Crisis»

Abstract

In the following months, the COVID-19 pandemic hopefully will be under control. In fact, governments worldwide are elaborating plans and strategies to live with this corona virus as long as there is no vaccine and no treatment. Social and economic activities are re-starting cautiously and they will be re-shaped substantially. However, the pandemic is going to evolve also as a major recession on a global scalewhichwill be pervasive and (presumably) long-lasting. At the time this editorial is written some international organizations have released forecasts on the economic downturn which is taking shape. The IMF has predicted that the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3% in 2020 but the result could be actually even worse. TheWTO has estimated a trade loss between 13% (optimistic scenario) and 32% or even more (worst case scenario). UNCTAD has anticipated that FDI of multinational corporations are to decline between 30 and 40% during