Trade Competition Between ASEAN, China, and India: The Post-trade War and COVID-19 Scenario

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI:10.1177/09749101211073376

Atsuyuki Kato

{"title":"Trade Competition Between ASEAN, China, and India: The Post-trade War and COVID-19 Scenario","authors":"Atsuyuki Kato","doi":"10.1177/09749101211073376","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the exports of large developing economies; such as Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, and India, and discusses the post-trade war and COVID-19 scenario. Applying an export sophistication index to their trade data, we investigate the export structure of these economies. In addition, using regression analysis, we examine the resilience of their skill and technology-intensive manufacturing exports to exchange rate and demand shocks. The estimated export sophistication index detects that China’s export sophistication has not always been a step ahead in comparison to ASEAN countries and India, which contrasts with China’s remarkable export growth. Our panel DOLS estimation reveals that their manufacturing exports are highly responsive to demand shocks, although the effects of bilateral exchange rate changes vary across product groups. An appreciation of the competitors’ currencies possibly encourages their manufacturing exports. In addition, our estimation reveals that China possibly mitigates the negative effects of the trade war and COVID-19 with its advantage in the global value chains as a contributor of value-added. These results have some implications for the effects of decoupling China and the USA because of their trade war and COVID-19 situation.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101211073376","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study examines the exports of large developing economies; such as Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, and India, and discusses the post-trade war and COVID-19 scenario. Applying an export sophistication index to their trade data, we investigate the export structure of these economies. In addition, using regression analysis, we examine the resilience of their skill and technology-intensive manufacturing exports to exchange rate and demand shocks. The estimated export sophistication index detects that China’s export sophistication has not always been a step ahead in comparison to ASEAN countries and India, which contrasts with China’s remarkable export growth. Our panel DOLS estimation reveals that their manufacturing exports are highly responsive to demand shocks, although the effects of bilateral exchange rate changes vary across product groups. An appreciation of the competitors’ currencies possibly encourages their manufacturing exports. In addition, our estimation reveals that China possibly mitigates the negative effects of the trade war and COVID-19 with its advantage in the global value chains as a contributor of value-added. These results have some implications for the effects of decoupling China and the USA because of their trade war and COVID-19 situation.

查看原文本刊更多论文

东盟、中国和印度之间的贸易竞争：贸易后战争与新冠肺炎情景

这项研究考察了大型发展中经济体的出口情况；如东南亚国家联盟（东盟）、中国和印度，并讨论了战后和新冠肺炎情景。将出口复杂度指数应用于它们的贸易数据，我们调查了这些经济体的出口结构。此外，使用回归分析，我们检验了他们的技能和技术密集型制造业出口对汇率和需求冲击的弹性。估计出口复杂度指数发现，与东盟国家和印度相比，中国的出口复杂度并不总是领先一步，这与中国显著的出口增长形成了鲜明对比。我们的DOLS小组估计显示，尽管双边汇率变化的影响因产品组而异，但它们的制造业出口对需求冲击的反应非常强烈。竞争对手的货币升值可能会鼓励他们的制造业出口。此外，我们的估计表明，中国可能会利用其在全球价值链中的优势，作为增值贡献者，减轻贸易战和新冠肺炎的负面影响。这些结果对中美两国因贸易战和新冠肺炎形势而脱钩的影响有一定影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies is a peer-reviewed journal. The aim of the journal is to provide an international platform for knowledge sharing, discussion and networking on the various aspects related to emerging market economies through publications of original research. It aims to make available basic reference material for policy-makers, business executives and researchers interested in issues of fundamental importance to the economic prospects and performance of emerging market economies. The topics for discussion are related to the following general categories: D. Microeconomics E. Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics F. International Economics G. Financial Economics H. Public Economics I. Health, Education, and Welfare J. Labor and Demographic Economics L. Industrial Organization O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth Q. Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics R. Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics Additionally, the journal would be most interested to publish topics related to Global Financial Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Market Economies Economic Development and Inclusive Growth Climate Change and Energy Infrastructure Development and Public Private Partnerships Capital Flows to and from Emerging Market Economies Regional Cooperation Trade and Investment and Development of National and Regional Financial Markets The Belt and Road Initiative.