Predicting serial position effects and judgment errors in retrospective evaluations from memory recall

IF 2.5 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Janina A. Hoffmann , Ann-Katrin Hosch
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

When forming global impressions in retrospect, the first, the last, and the most outstanding experience often have a lasting impact on the final evaluation of an event, as most prominently captured in the peak-end rule. Such serial position effects in impression formation provide indirect evidence that individuals reconstruct their evaluations by retrieving previous experiences from memory, instead of updating their impression online. Yet, latest work sheds doubt on the ability to predict global evaluations from memory retrieval on the individual level. In three experiments, we aim to quantify how much variability in retrospective evaluations can be attributed to memory retrieval by relating serial position effects in retrospective averaging judgments to serial recall curves from memory. The experiments revealed serial position effects in memory recall and corresponding, but less consistent effects in averaging judgments, demonstrating that individuals better recalled and more heavily weighted the first and last item. For long sequences, memory recall permitted to predict individuals’ averaging error to a moderate to strong degree, even if individuals were unaware of number recall as a potential averaging strategy (Experiment 2). Yet, shorter sequences fail to evidence the same relationship, possibly because individuals attempt to apply more optimal averaging strategies (Experiment 3). We discuss retrieval patterns as markers for distinct evaluation strategies.

回溯性评价中序列位置效应和判断错误的预测
当在回顾中形成整体印象时,第一次,最后一次和最突出的经验通常会对事件的最终评估产生持久的影响,这在峰值结束规则中最明显地体现出来。这种印象形成中的连续位置效应提供了间接证据,表明个体通过从记忆中检索以前的经历来重建他们的评价,而不是在线更新他们的印象。然而,最近的研究对从个人层面的记忆提取来预测整体评估的能力提出了质疑。在三个实验中,我们的目标是通过将回顾性平均判断中的序列位置效应与记忆中的序列回忆曲线联系起来,量化回顾性评估中有多少可变性可归因于记忆检索。实验揭示了连续位置效应在记忆回忆和相应的,但不一致的影响平均判断,表明个人更好地回忆和更重权重的第一和最后一个项目。对于长序列,即使个体没有意识到数字回忆是一种潜在的平均策略(实验2),记忆回忆也可以在中等到强烈程度上预测个体的平均误差。然而,较短的序列无法证明同样的关系,可能是因为个体试图采用更优的平均策略(实验3)。我们讨论了作为不同评估策略标记的检索模式。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
31.40%
发文量
69
审稿时长
63 days
期刊介绍: The Journal aims to present research that will improve understanding of behavioral, in particular psychological, aspects of economic phenomena and processes. The Journal seeks to be a channel for the increased interest in using behavioral science methods for the study of economic behavior, and so to contribute to better solutions of societal problems, by stimulating new approaches and new theorizing about economic affairs. Economic psychology as a discipline studies the psychological mechanisms that underlie economic behavior. It deals with preferences, judgments, choices, economic interaction, and factors influencing these, as well as the consequences of judgements and decisions for economic processes and phenomena. This includes the impact of economic institutions upon human behavior and well-being. Studies in economic psychology may relate to different levels of aggregation, from the household and the individual consumer to the macro level of whole nations. Economic behavior in connection with inflation, unemployment, taxation, economic development, as well as consumer information and economic behavior in the market place are thus among the fields of interest. The journal also encourages submissions dealing with social interaction in economic contexts, like bargaining, negotiation, or group decision-making. The Journal of Economic Psychology contains: (a) novel reports of empirical (including: experimental) research on economic behavior; (b) replications studies; (c) assessments of the state of the art in economic psychology; (d) articles providing a theoretical perspective or a frame of reference for the study of economic behavior; (e) articles explaining the implications of theoretical developments for practical applications; (f) book reviews; (g) announcements of meetings, conferences and seminars.
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