The value of OPEC’s spare capacity to the oil market and global economy

IF 1.5 Q2 ECONOMICS
H. Almutairi, Axel Pierru, James L. Smith
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

We investigate the extent to whichOPEC has succeeded in its self-stated mission of stabilising the oil market and the implications for the world’s economy. We discuss the modelling framework developed by Pierru, Smith and Zamrik (2018) and Pierru, Smith and Almutairi (2020) and update their analyses. Unstabilised monthly oil prices that would have prevailed in the absence of OPEC’s spare capacity policy are determined for the September 2001–June 2020 period. Overall, OPEC’s management of spare capacity has significantly decreased themonthly volatility of the oil price. Three subperiods (commodity boom, market-share campaign, OPEC+) can, however, be distinguished in terms of the impact on price volatility. The annual value of OPEC’s spare capacity to the world’s economy is estimated to be 193.1 billion in 2019 US dollars.
欧佩克闲置产能对石油市场和全球经济的价值
我们调查了欧佩克在多大程度上成功地完成了其稳定石油市场的既定使命,以及对世界经济的影响。我们讨论了Pierru、Smith和Zamrik(2018)以及Pierru、史密斯和Almutairi(2020)开发的建模框架,并更新了他们的分析。在没有欧佩克闲置产能政策的情况下,不稳定的月度油价将在2001年9月至2020年6月期间确定。总体而言,欧佩克对闲置产能的管理显著降低了油价的月度波动性。然而,就对价格波动的影响而言,可以区分三个亚时期(大宗商品繁荣、市场份额运动、欧佩克+)。2019年,欧佩克的闲置产能对世界经济的年价值估计为1931亿美元。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
OPEC Energy Review
OPEC Energy Review ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
4.50%
发文量
34
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