Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting

IF 0.8 4区工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Teknik Dergi Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI:10.18400/tekderg.605453

A. D. Mehr, M. Safari, Vahid Nourani

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引用次数: 17

Abstract

This study presents developing procedures and verification of a new hybrid model, namely wavelet packet-genetic programming (WPGP) for short-term meteorological drought forecast. To this end, the multi-temporal standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) has been used as the drought quantifying parameter at two meteorological stations at Ankara province, Turkey. The new WPGP model comprises two main steps. In the first step, the wavelet packet, which is a generalization of the well-known wavelet transform, is used to decompose the SPEI series into deterministic and stochastic sub-signals. Then, classic genetic programming (GP) is applied to formulate the deterministic sub-signal considering its effective lags. To characterize the stochastic component, different theoretical probability distribution functions were assessed, and the best one was selected to integrate with the GP-evolved function. The efficiency of the new model was cross-validated with the first order autoregressive (AR1), GP, and random forest (RF) models developed as the benchmarks in the present study. The results showed that the WPGP is a robust model, superior to AR1 and RF, and significantly increases the predictive accuracy of the standalone GP model.

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小波包遗传规划:一种新的气象干旱预报模型

本文介绍了一种新的短期气象干旱预测混合模型——小波包遗传规划（WPGP）的开发过程和验证。为此，在土耳其安卡拉省的两个气象站使用多时相标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）作为干旱量化参数。新的WPGP模型包括两个主要步骤。在第一步中，小波包是众所周知的小波变换的推广，用于将SPEI序列分解为确定性和随机性子信号。然后，将经典遗传规划（GP）应用于考虑有效滞后的确定子信号的公式化。为了表征随机分量，评估了不同的理论概率分布函数，并选择了最好的概率分布函数与GP进化函数相结合。新模型的效率与作为本研究基准开发的一阶自回归（AR1）、GP和随机森林（RF）模型进行了交叉验证。结果表明，WPGP是一个稳健的模型，优于AR1和RF，并显著提高了独立GP模型的预测精度。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Teknik Dergi 工程技术-工程：土木

自引率

30.80%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The scope of Teknik Dergi is naturally confined with the subjects falling in the area of civil engineering. However, the area of civil engineering has recently been significantly enlarged, even the definition of civil engineering has somewhat changed. Half a century ago, engineering was simply defined as “the art of using and converting the natural resources for the benefit of the mankind”. Today, the same objective is expected to be realised (i) by complying with the desire and expectations of the people concerned and (ii) without wasting the resources and within the sustainability principles. This change has required an interaction between engineering and social and administrative sciences. Some subjects at the borderline between civil engineering and social and administrative sciences have consequently been included in the area of civil engineering. Teknik Dergi defines its scope in line with this understanding. However, it requires the papers falling in the borderline to have a significant component of civil engineering.