Self-organized criticality in manufacturing system unscheduled downtime series and its application to major failure prediction

IF 1.3 4区工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Quality Engineering Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI:10.1080/08982112.2022.2150084

Bo Li, Hengchang Liu, Fengjiao Yang, Nan Jiang

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract In this study, self-organized criticality theory was applied to analyze the unscheduled downtime (USDT) characteristic of a complex manufacturing system. The long-range correlation of the USDT series was verified through the Hurst exponent value. Then, we developed a model to depict the relationship between the frequency and USDT duration with the extreme value theory. The parameters of the model were estimated with the maximum likelihood method and updated with Bayesian inference when new data was available. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method was validated by the USDT data of the bottleneck system from a semiconductor assembly and test factory.

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制造系统非计划停机序列的自组织临界性及其在重大故障预测中的应用

摘要应用自组织临界性理论分析了复杂制造系统的非计划停机时间(USDT)特征。通过Hurst指数值验证了USDT序列的长程相关性。然后，我们利用极值理论建立了频率与USDT持续时间的关系模型。模型参数采用极大似然法估计，当有新数据时采用贝叶斯推理进行更新。最后，通过半导体组装测试厂瓶颈系统的USDT数据验证了所提方法的有效性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Quality Engineering ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL-STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Quality Engineering aims to promote a rich exchange among the quality engineering community by publishing papers that describe new engineering methods ready for immediate industrial application or examples of techniques uniquely employed. You are invited to submit manuscripts and application experiences that explore: Experimental engineering design and analysis Measurement system analysis in engineering Engineering process modelling Product and process optimization in engineering Quality control and process monitoring in engineering Engineering regression Reliability in engineering Response surface methodology in engineering Robust engineering parameter design Six Sigma method enhancement in engineering Statistical engineering Engineering test and evaluation techniques.