Emergence of non-extensive seismic magnitude-frequency distribution from a Bayesian framework

IF 1.2 4区地球科学 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences

Earthquake Science Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.eqs.2022.06.004

Ewin Sánchez

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Non-extensive statistical mechanics has been used in recent years as a framework in order to build some seismic frequency-magnitude models. Following a Bayesian procedure through a process of marginalization, it is shown that some of these models can arise from the result shown here, which reinforces the relevance of the non-extensive distributions to explain the data (earthquake’s magnitude) observed during the seismic manifestation. In addition, it makes possible to extend the non-extensive family of distributions, which could explain cases that, eventually, could not be covered by the currently known distributions within this framework. The model obtained was applied to six data samples, corresponding to the frequency-magnitude distributions observed before and after the three strongest earthquakes registered in Chile during the late millennium. In all cases, fit parameters show a strong trend to a particular non-extensive model widely known in literature.

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从贝叶斯框架中出现非广泛的地震震级-频率分布

近年来，非广义统计力学已被用作建立地震频率-震级模型的框架。根据贝叶斯程序，通过一个边缘化的过程，可以看出其中一些模型可以从这里所示的结果中产生，这加强了非广泛分布的相关性，以解释地震表现期间观测到的数据(地震震级)。此外，它还可以扩展非扩展的发行版家族，这可以解释在这个框架内当前已知的发行版最终无法涵盖的情况。获得的模型应用于六个数据样本，这些数据样本对应于智利在千年后期记录的三次最强地震前后观测到的频率-震级分布。在所有情况下，拟合参数都显示出对文献中广泛已知的特定非粗放模型的强烈趋势。

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来源期刊

Earthquake Science GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS-

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Earthquake Science (EQS) aims to publish high-quality, original, peer-reviewed articles on earthquake-related research subjects. It is an English international journal sponsored by the Seismological Society of China and the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. The topics include, but not limited to, the following ● Seismic sources of all kinds. ● Earth structure at all scales. ● Seismotectonics. ● New methods and theoretical seismology. ● Strong ground motion. ● Seismic phenomena of all kinds. ● Seismic hazards, earthquake forecasting and prediction. ● Seismic instrumentation. ● Significant recent or past seismic events. ● Documentation of recent seismic events or important observations. ● Descriptions of field deployments, new methods, and available software tools. The types of manuscripts include the following. There is no length requirement, except for the Short Notes. 【Articles】 Original contributions that have not been published elsewhere. 【Short Notes】 Short papers of recent events or topics that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications. Limited to 4 publication pages. 【Rapid Communications】 Significant contributions that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications. 【Review Articles】Review articles are by invitation only. Please contact the editorial office and editors for possible proposals. 【Toolboxes】 Descriptions of novel numerical methods and associated computer codes. 【Data Products】 Documentation of datasets of various kinds that are interested to the community and available for open access (field data, processed data, synthetic data, or models). 【Opinions】Views on important topics and future directions in earthquake science. 【Comments and Replies】Commentaries on a recently published EQS paper is welcome. The authors of the paper commented will be invited to reply. Both the Comment and the Reply are subject to peer review.