How Do General Election Incentives Affect the Visible and Invisible Primary?

IF 1.4 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Mackenzie Lockhart, Seth J. Hill
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Previous research finds that nominating more centrist candidates increases vote share and win probability in congressional general elections. Yet party primary elections often nominate non-centrist candidates, increasing polarization between the American parties. We develop a model of choice in nomination politics that shows when and how actors respond to incentives of the general election. We then combine 200 million contribution records with data on 22,400 candidates in 7100 House primary elections from 1980 through 2016. We find that potential candidates and primary voters respond to general election incentives but do not find clear evidence for contributors or the winnowing process. Connecting these results back to our model, this implies that actors in the invisible primary either place higher value on in-party candidate ideology or have different beliefs about the general election than do primary voters. Our evidence adds to a body of research that suggests primary voters are a larger moderating force than elites in American party politics.

大选激励措施如何影响看得见和看不见的初选?
先前的研究发现,提名更多的中间派候选人会增加国会大选中的选票份额和获胜概率。然而,政党初选经常提名非中间派候选人,加剧了美国政党之间的两极分化。我们开发了一个提名政治中的选择模型,该模型显示了参与者何时以及如何对大选的激励做出反应。然后,我们将2亿条捐款记录与1980年至2016年期间7100次众议院初选中22400名候选人的数据结合起来。我们发现潜在的候选人和初选选民会对大选激励做出反应,但没有找到明确的证据证明捐助者或筛选过程。将这些结果与我们的模型联系起来,这意味着无形初选中的参与者要么更看重党内候选人的意识形态,要么对大选的看法与初选选民不同。我们的证据与一系列研究一起表明,在美国政党政治中,初选选民是比精英更大的缓和力量。
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来源期刊
Legislative Studies Quarterly
Legislative Studies Quarterly POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
13.30%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: The Legislative Studies Quarterly is an international journal devoted to the publication of research on representative assemblies. Its purpose is to disseminate scholarly work on parliaments and legislatures, their relations to other political institutions, their functions in the political system, and the activities of their members both within the institution and outside. Contributions are invited from scholars in all countries. The pages of the Quarterly are open to all research approaches consistent with the normal canons of scholarship, and to work on representative assemblies in all settings and all time periods. The aim of the journal is to contribute to the formulation and verification of general theories about legislative systems, processes, and behavior.
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