Application of Geostatistic Models for Aridity Scenarios in northern Mexico

IF 1 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2022-08-02 DOI:10.20937/atm.53103

Javier De Jesús Correa Islas, Juan Manuel Romero Padilla, Paulino Pérez Rodríguez, Antonio Vázquez Alarcón

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Abstract

An annual mean temperature map was calculated using the Kriging interpolation method for the north-central zone of Mexico to obtain the current aridity, as well as, possible scenarios for the near and distant future. The altitudinal gradient was estimated by linear regression and it was used to estimate the mean temperature. Climate Influence Areas (CIA) were obtained by superimposing the official precipitation layer and the annual mean temperature layer with help of Geographic Information Systems tools. Monthly databases of climatic variables were generated for each CIA and potential evapotranspiration was estimated using the Thorthwaite methodology. The Aridity Index (AI) was calculated and mapped for a base scenario (1970-2000). Subsequently, the aridity behavior of some scenarios was projected and mapped using the global climate models HADGEM 2.0, GFDLCM 3.0, MIP_ESM, and CRNMCM5. Some scenarios were predicted, in the best scenario, aridity will weaken the humid ecosystems and in the worst scenario, hyper-arid climates will appear in the study region.

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地质统计模型在墨西哥北部干旱情景中的应用

使用克里格插值法计算了墨西哥中北部地区的年平均温度图，以获得当前的干旱程度以及近期和远期的可能情况。海拔梯度通过线性回归估计，并用于估计平均温度。气候影响区（CIA）是在地理信息系统工具的帮助下，通过叠加官方降水层和年平均温度层获得的。为每个CIA生成了气候变量的月度数据库，并使用Thortwaite方法估计了潜在的蒸散量。干旱指数（AI）是为基础情景（1970-2000）计算和绘制的。随后，使用全球气候模型HADGEM 2.0、GFDLCM 3.0、MIP_ESM和CRNMCM5对一些情景的干旱行为进行了预测和绘制。预测了一些情况，在最佳情况下，干旱将削弱潮湿的生态系统，在最坏的情况下，研究区域将出现超干旱气候。

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来源期刊

Atmosfera 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

2.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： ATMÓSFERA seeks contributions on theoretical, basic, empirical and applied research in all the areas of atmospheric sciences, with emphasis on meteorology, climatology, aeronomy, physics, chemistry, and aerobiology. Interdisciplinary contributions are also accepted; especially those related with oceanography, hydrology, climate variability and change, ecology, forestry, glaciology, agriculture, environmental pollution, and other topics related to economy and society as they are affected by atmospheric hazards.