Valoración de la prueba de ADN en las identificaciones a gran escala de personas desaparecidas

Abstract

The evaluation of the DNA test in massive identification cases requires the use of Bayes' Theorem to estimate the probability of identification from a priori data together with probabilities obtained from the DNA test itself. To apply it, one needs to specify the prior probabilities of the hypotheses. An interdisciplinary team and an identification coordinator are key stakeholders in this process. The statistical approach can be complex, but there exists validated non-commercial software, such as Familias, which aid in estimating the likelihood ratios of the DNA test for the given hypotheses. Next, the posterior probabilities in massive identification events can be estimated using the one-to-one, PM-driven, AM-driven or Global approaches published recently by Kling et al. Which are discussed in this article. The Identification Coordinator has a key role in formulating the hypotheses of the case, in establishing the prior probabilities, the identification threshold and in consolidating the integrated identification report together with the multidisciplinary team through the reconciliation of the case.